IanMan

Anyone looking at investing in Facebook Stocks?

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If any of you are into the tech scene, you should be familiar with the Oculus Rift by now, and also know that Facebook purchased Oculus for around a whopping 2 billion dollars. Virtual reality is going to take the world by storm here pretty soon, and there are currently a metric fcuk ton of people willing to buy headsets. Just about everyone I've talked to who plays computer games or video games in general has expressed a lot of interest in these and many are ready to purchase when the time is right, leading me to believe that investing in Facebook stock now is going to be a good idea, especially with Oculus seeming to be the front runner when it comes to gaming platforms. So far they have the advantage over Sony, being that they've already parted with Microsoft in some ways with Xbox and they're primarily interested in the PC platform. They've also discussed using their system for many other purposes.

 

I believe that Facbeook will be cashing in before we know it and their stocks are going to be money makers if you turn around and sell in the future. To me, it seems like a great long term investment. I could be wrong and naive, but it definitely seems like something to watch in the upcoming months. Just a thought. Has anyone else looked into this?

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You get a bunch and tell us how it goes.

 

Me, I'm long bicycles and inflatable car shields. Also bullish on photo apps for transgenders.

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You get a bunch and tell us how it goes.

 

Me, I'm long bicycles and inflatable car shields. Also bullish on photo apps for transgenders.

Astute positioning there Ninja. I am going to assess after the frozen concentrated orange juice futures figures have been released.

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this is not a sector that I follow, and I am not much of a gamer, but E3 is in the news. It seems several companies have VR goggles coming out including Sony, Sony is also outselling the Xbox platform at a ratio of 2:1. But my concern is where the market goes from here, some people say platform and computer gaming is dying out in favor of app based games..

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You get a bunch and tell us how it goes.

 

Me, I'm long bicycles and inflatable car shields. Also bullish on photo apps for transgenders.

 

 

Astute positioning there Ninja. I am going to assess after the frozen concentrated orange juice futures figures have been released.

 

I'm putting all of my money on Transgender apps, lol.

 

this is not a sector that I follow, and I am not much of a gamer, but E3 is in the news. It seems several companies have VR goggles coming out including Sony, Sony is also outselling the Xbox platform at a ratio of 2:1. But my concern is where the market goes from here, some people say platform and computer gaming is dying out in favor of app based games..

 

 

I certainly have seen the rise in APP-based games, but you have to remember that there are games like Grand Theft Auto 5 that have made billions of dollars for the console industry. I also agree with you in that Sony has had the upper advantage when it comes to consoles but I believe that after this E3, XBOX will start selling a lot more consoles, especially after announcing the new backwards compatibility with 360 games. Even if Sony outsells Oculus, which I don't think they will, Facebook will expand quite a bit from the money they'll be making.

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I get that Facebook has a lot of capital and they are investing into many different positions, but looking at Facebook as a stock I think its overvalued. Sure there is always a way to play a stock, but this is not a position that I would want to hold over night.

 

as far as the Oculus vs the Sony, its going to come down to price and plug and play capability

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Astute positioning there Ninja. I am going to assess after the frozen concentrated orange juice futures figures have been released.

 

Beeks....where the hell is Beeks?!

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preferred customers get IPO offers all the time ... I believe I am a preferred customer at all major houses just for those reasons. I got in real early on FB put in ipo bids.. then bought more and I am holding .. Morgan Stanley gave me the ipo

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I like companies that have something that creates money out of thin air - amazon with kindle publishing, facebook with ads, etc.

 

IMO facebook ads are still a new and confusing thing to most people, and it will get more widespread as the word of mouth about how well they work goes on.

 

 

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You get a bunch and tell us how it goes.

 

Me, I'm long bicycles and inflatable car shields. Also bullish on photo apps for transgenders.

 

:shock: :lol2:

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I've been following VR for a while and have posted before that I think it is going to be 'the next big thing'. My 65 year old mother, who has no care for tech, was absolutely blown away by the DK2 when I gave her a demo and was ecstatic about where this tech could be in 10-15 years when she won't be as mobile as she is now. This, and my friends that have no interest in gaming say they want to get a PC and Oculus when they become available, makes me think there is real potential for this to catch on and have some legs on it.

 

My take on investing in VR:

 

Facebook picked up Oculus, but that isn't even a drop in the bucket for a $275BN company. Lets say Oculus catches on and is worth $10BN in 2017. That $8BN in appreciation is a ~3% gain in value for the company. Yeehaw.

 

I'm betting on the chips that power the VR experience. For those who don't know, VR is VERY demanding and requires a powerful GPU to deliver a good experience. Oculus has stated that the minimum spec for the first consumer version is going to be Nvidia's GTX 970. Yes, there will be an AMD equivalent, but I think NVDA is a better run company and their balance sheet is strong as hell (I think ~$5 per share is reflective of their cash holdings). When VR catches on there are going to be LOTS and LOTS of people upgrading their GPUs and new customers coming in purchasing PCs that have these GPUs. Additionally, this serves as a bit of a mitigant, as there are several companies releasing VR headsets, but they are all useless without the computing horsepower behind them. Even if Oculus doesn't win the race, it is 99% certain that Nvidia or AMD will be powering whoever does. For what its worth, AMD is powering the Xbox One and PS4, but that only applies to this generation of console and its an open playing field going forward. I view Nvidia as a clear leader in the PC arena.

 

So, I'm long NVDA. Been buying since ~$12 and I think my weighted cost is a little south of $17 now. They also have big upside potential from other businesses.

 

A. Just released a streaming gaming service (think NetFlix for games).

B. Automotive computing. Their chips are showing up in Audis, VWs, Teslas, etc.

C. They're making a big push to be the leader in self driving cars: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102697961

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I'm actually more interested in FOVE or Steam VR at this point. Oculus has not been transparent with a release date up until recently, and has drug their feet. FOVE technology sounds far more awesome and more in depth and the steam VR positioning sound intense. I think that steam is going to potentially steal a lot of the sales out from under the feet of Oculus since they are releasing sooner, and actively competing at events with demos.

 

All I know is that I can't make up my mind on which to buy... but I am pretty sure that I want Steam VR.... or a FOVE.... or an Oculus.... or a Steam VR.... or an Oculus.... or a FOVE....

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I'm actually more interested in FOVE or Steam VR at this point. Oculus has not been transparent with a release date up until recently, and has drug their feet. FOVE technology sounds far more awesome and more in depth and the steam VR positioning sound intense. I think that steam is going to potentially steal a lot of the sales out from under the feet of Oculus since they are releasing sooner, and actively competing at events with demos.

 

All I know is that I can't make up my mind on which to buy... but I am pretty sure that I want Steam VR.... or a FOVE.... or an Oculus.... or a Steam VR.... or an Oculus.... or a FOVE....

 

All I hope for is they keep it open source. I'm afraid the industry could be in trouble if they fragment the customer base.

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All I know is that I probably won't leave my office for a few years after I get one.

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All I know is that I probably won't leave my office for a few years after I get one.

 

Ain't that the truth!

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I have a feeling that I'm in the minority here in that I've actually been playing with a DK2 for over a year now, and I had access to the DK1 early on as well. I can tell you from personal experience, VR is going to be a massive game changer.

Virtual Reality is going to be THE thing to have next year, though the software for it is lacking thus far.

 

As for which headset will win, that's a tough call at this point. Each one has big differences, and technically built for somewhat different purposes.

 

Oculus Rift - Pioneer in this space. Came up with a way to make VR work properly. After kickstarter campaign has been working on iterating the headset until perfect. - had to wait for screen tech to be up to snuff, so I wouldn't call that dragging thier feet. As someone who's used the developer headsets, I can't imagine being successful with the product they had. If that went to retail the PR would be terrible. As a developer kit, they didn't have to justify it's poor quality, it demonstrated the potential wonderfully. Oculus had previously been saying that a target of $300-$400 was the goal, but has since stopped talking about that, and has alluded to it being somwhat higher. Rumors are floating around the $500 mark, but it now includes and Xbox One controller in the box, and with an Windows 10 PC in the house, XboxOne games can be streamed to the Rift in a VR theatre. - release q1 2016, pre-orders later this year.

 

HTV Vive- HTC partnered with Valve to create a competing headset. This system works in conjunction with Valve's SteamVR API, and makes use of full body tracking sensors, and 2 wand controllers. The Vive requires a large open room (I believe they said 10feet by 8feet of unubstructed space) as it's designed to be a full body experience, and will require moving around the room. This will be of limited interst to many people, and it will be unattaianable for a massive portion of the populace simply due to lack of space for it. It almost certainly will need a dedicated room. HTC has stated that the Vive will be a premium product and priced as such. Estimates are putting it at $600 plus. - release fall 2015, no clear date. pre-orders later this year. Nothing has been shown of the retail kit yet either.

 

Sony Morpheus - This is somewhat a competitor, but not really. The PS4 is currently capable of pusing games at 60fps or less. VR has been proven to need 90 or higher, and Morpheus is being designed to run at 120Hz. That means that the VR experiences on Morpheus are going to be much less graphically intensive. It won't be playing the latest triple-A games in VR, at least not at the same fidelity as a standard counterpart. There may be more PS4s out there than XboxOnes, but I guarantee there are magnatudes more PC's out there. Console accessories never sell anywhere near in the same numbers as the consoles themselves. How many people went out and bought PS Move, or a Playstation Eye camera? - estimated q2 2016.

 

Fove HMD - While this thing looks interesting, I wouldn't put my money on this system. Oculus has Facebook money behind it, Vive has HTC and Valve's money behind it. Mopheus has Sony, while probably broke they still have a massive business keeping the company running. Fove has nothing. An upstart with an idea that doesn't have any software support for it. Eye tracking sounds cool, but currently not a single game on the market supports it, and there was no mention of any developers making use of that tech in upcoming games at E3 either.

 

Right now the biggest hurdle is games. E3 just wrapped up and I think they talked about a grand total of 7 VR games coming in the next year, and many of them didn't look very compelling. A lot of the stuff being developed right now is third person, yet VR screams first person all day long. The only first person game shown is Eve Valkyrie (which admittedly is enough for me to get an HMD).

I would be very reluctant to even consider niche technology like Fove's eye tracking before there are even any concept games for the tech.

 

 

 

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Virtual Reality is going to be THE thing to have next year, though the software for it is lacking thus far.

 

As for which headset will win, that's a tough call at this point. Each one has big differences, and technically built for somewhat different purposes.

 

Great summary of the industry, but like I said; it doesn't matter who wins the HMD race if you're investing in the hardware that powers it. I also think mainstream adaptation is more than 1 year out. It is going to take more than 1 killer app before jane & joe schmoe pony up $1,500 for the experience.

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So much truth in this scene:

 

 

I don't believe in stocks, unless it's the stock of company that I have started. After understanding how the market works, it is just like Douglas says "throwing darts at a board." You'd probably be better starting something from the ground up. That's the point I'm at, if you ever wanna bounce ideas around feel free to PM me.

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facebook is a good play. I only play long now. Everything I have ever played short, if I would have just played long, I would be up 30 fold over playing short.

 

If you believe in their vision and believe its a strong value over time. Invest. If you think something will make a quick spike and you can sell and get out just go throw some money on the roulette wheel. It's quicker and less painful.

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I'm curious what people here think of VR - do you think it's a very niche thing, or do you think it'll be something we'll see in 25% of households or more?

 

How does a family have a VR experience at the same time? Everyone sits on the couch with those helmets "watching a movie together?"

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I'm curious what people here think of VR - do you think it's a very niche thing, or do you think it'll be something we'll see in 25% of households or more?

 

How does a family have a VR experience at the same time? Everyone sits on the couch with those helmets "watching a movie together?"

 

At this point, it is an incredibly niche product, but you can hardly even say its in its infancy since all of the hardware released is still for software developers. I had an Oculus Development Kit v2 and demonstrated it to friends and family and they were all blown away. These are people that had no interest in gaming, cutting edge tech, VR, etc, but they were all very excited about the possibilities that it had with a few years of refinement. One of the bigger, near future hurdles, will be input method, but Oculus just announced their new hand tracking controllers that look promising. The potential applications for this technology are, literally, endless; gaming, vr tourism, simulation, chat rooms, porn (I don't mean that as a joke, we know it will all be done) and on and on. I don't see it happening in 2 years and probably not in 5 years, but I'd imagine in 10 years virtual reality is a much larger business than the current video game and console market is.

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At this point, it is an incredibly niche product, but you can hardly even say its in its infancy since all of the hardware released is still for software developers. I had an Oculus Development Kit v2 and demonstrated it to friends and family and they were all blown away. These are people that had no interest in gaming, cutting edge tech, VR, etc, but they were all very excited about the possibilities that it had with a few years of refinement. One of the bigger, near future hurdles, will be input method, but Oculus just announced their new hand tracking controllers that look promising. The potential applications for this technology are, literally, endless; gaming, vr tourism, simulation, chat rooms, porn (I don't mean that as a joke, we know it will all be done) and on and on. I don't see it happening in 2 years and probably not in 5 years, but I'd imagine in 10 years virtual reality is a much larger business than the current video game and console market is.

 

+ a billion (dollars :D )

 

I have a friend developing a VR model home platform for the new home construction industry. You can tour the house, change finishings, paint colors, add your own furniture, fcuk, even see what your dog looks like curled up by the fireplace... The surface hasn't even begun to be scratched from a marketing perspective. This industry will be enormous.

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