phxdiablo

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I've made 60% returns in NURO and DRRX - now I'm just riding them up.

 

PVX

 

CMC (Commercial Metals/Steel)

 

 

My approach is strictly technical - find a trend, ride it up. When the trend breaks, I move out. Sometimes I buy stocks not having a clue what the companies do - purely stock action I play.

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Only stock i play is HOT. Ive got about 1500 shares i bought at 45, now looking at 63 and change in about 6 months.

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I finished paying of my SS with Apple (AAPL) bought it right after 9/11 when all the tech stocks dropped. Got it for about 15 a share. Sold it for about 83 a share right before it split. Man if i could rewind I would have put all of my savings into that one...

 

Edit: on a side note how do you pick ur stocks? I wanna start getting more serious into it, and with APPL i just kinda had a really good hunch (Ironic thing is i can't stand the computers). where would be a good place to research companies and find out if they are on the up.

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Edit: on a side note how do you pick ur stocks?

 

Purely technical. Stocks are about supply and demand. If a stock is trending up, demand exceeds supply. I find a trend, ride it up and create triggers when the trend breaks.

 

Many times I buy stuff and I have no clue what the companies do, or how their fundamentals are -- if the chart shows its under accumulation, Ill sneak in to see if can ride it up. Once a log a big gain (50%+) I liquidate half the position (take profits) and keep moving my stop/loss higher and higher until I get closed out of the position.

 

I used to fear buying high priced stocks -- however I learned they are high for a reason.

 

Buy high. Sell higher. When I stopped buying cheap stocks that I thought "bottomed" I started making money.

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phxdiablo- interesting strategy... I just started trading 2 years ago, i've gotten more active recently(something i can do worthwhile while im stuck in school)

 

First stocks I ever bought were MVL and LGF, rode those and sold them for a large gain- but I wasnt playing w/ much only 25k so I didnt make alot. :( I've taken out more money recently, but havnt had the same success hehe

 

Ive picked a few winners, mvl,lgf, siri, atvi, viac... and some losers; via, wti, kkd, mgln... At the moment im holding, xmsr, via, nsany really havnt found much to invest in the past few months.

 

All my picks have been stuff in the sectors I know, i've heard news in- or have a hunch that they are going to outperform. This stock bug started with me 'cuss i am a huge movie buff and heard about the first xmen film and figured id better invest in marvel.

 

Were do you do most of your looking for stocks? You said you buy stocks that you often dont know alot about; do you simply look at the daily market movers or? I have no problem doign research into a company (wsj merci) what im qurious about; _if_ you dont mind sharing at all is were do you catch your picks from ??

 

 

-Thanks, hope you dont mind me picking your brain here :)

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I used Ameritrade Advanced Analyzer -- they have tons of screens and you can create your own. I think the software costs $$ if you don't have over $250K in the account -- if you do, its FREE. I run the screens and 100's of good buys pop up.

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By the way... HOW ABOUT THIS MARKET?!?!?!?!

 

Now... If the right car would just become available, I could reward all my hard work...

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The market is on fire...love it. Every day brings my Gallardo SE closer. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

 

Good picks Roman, I have a few of your funds.

 

Everyone add XMSR to your list of speculative plays, I'm up 47% in it since June 9th alone. Great stock, great management, great revenue growth.

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I think XM is good for speculation... Just a few problems... I cant get my hands around subscribing for one more goddamned thing in my life.... Im up to HERE (making hand motion to forehead) with monthly subscriptions.... And if I am... SO IS EVERYBODY ELSE....

 

Secondly, the world aint big enough for XM AND sirius... One of them is going to join Beta and digital tape and 8 track and laser disk and all the other media formats that never caught on... Until Im sure which one it will be... (And right now I think XM wins out) its too shakey for me.

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Those are common fears, but the numbers prove otherwise. There's always room for another subscription if the service given is incredible. And with a 1.4% churn rate (meaning 98.6% of existing subscribers keep their subscriptions month to month) XM has a higher satisfaction rate than any other subscription model today. Higher than Cable TV, higher than Satellite TV, higher than NetFlix, higher than anything.

 

Here are some numbers for you:

 

XM had 2.1M subscribers a year ago today.

 

They have 4.4M subscribers now.

 

They'll have 6M subscribers by the end of this year.

 

They'll have 10M subscribers by the end of next year.

 

And they'll have 25M subscribers by the end of the decade.

 

Sirius currently occupies 33% of the market based on Q2/2005 subscription adds. They will hold that same marketshare indefinitely, as XM has a stranglehold on what matters: OEM Auto install partners. There are 14M new cars sold in the United States each year, and XM has exlusive partnerships with 68% of them. That right there alone is game over to be honest, but lets continue.

 

The total market for satellite radio service is estimated to fall in the 100 - 120M range, achieved by 2014.

 

All of the above estimates are conservative, and are sourced from Street Anaylsts, not XM itself. Cash flow break even for XM occurs at 7M subs, i.e, early next year. Everything on top of it, including 5M subs added per year at $12.95 per month, is pure profit as costs are fixed.

 

They're adding customers faster than the DVD Player was adopted in the States, and until you try the service yourself, you can't understand how great it is. Rare story of a product actually being worth more than its monthly fee.

 

Remember this thread, this is the second time I offered XMSR to this board, the first time was 47% percent ago. Not sure why there's hesitancy.

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Remember this thread, this is the second time I offered XMSR to this board, the first time was 47% percent ago. Not sure why there's hesitancy.

 

#-o

 

OK Mako, I'll give you a chance. I'm movin in. [-o

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#-o

 

OK Mako, I'll give you a chance. I'm movin in. [-o

 

Thank you Mr Gekko, I won't let you down! ;)

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Remember this thread, this is the second time I offered XMSR to this board, the first time was 47% percent ago. Not sure why there's hesitancy.

 

I have hesitancy for several reasons...

 

1. Im leveraged up to my ass, and buying means selling something else (well... not really... My portfolio still has 100K in cash, but thats earmarked for something else ;) ) and I dont know who to sell... (however if that leftist Warren Buffet doesnt do something to move Berkshire up more than 1 dollar a day, Im dumping that thing like a hot rock)

 

2. I dont make small moves... If Im going to buy a stock, Im going to buy 50K worth of it.... or none at all... See #1 again...

 

3. I dont buy until I've done all the homework, and I just havent done it yet... Kramer LOVES this stock, and makes many of the points you do... I'm sure he and you are right. And Im glad youre making a killing...

 

4. I really cant stand Howard Stern, and I have NO IDEA who the other XM "Personalities" are. Do they webcast for a preview?

 

5. I've NEVER gotten in on the bottom of the "next hot thing" and Ive done OK... Id rather buy into a proven performer than try to figure out whats going to be hot... I have no compass for it.

 

 

So I have a question... I know most new cars are coming with Sat Radio standard... Are they GIVING the subscriptions away for a free period of time (like On-Star... You get those services free for a year when you buy the car), and are freebies considered in the numbers you gave?

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#-o

 

OK Mako, I'll give you a chance. I'm movin in. [-o

 

Thank you Mr Gekko, I won't let you down! ;)

 

"I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought. "

 

"You stop sending me information, and you start getting me some."

 

:mrgreen:

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Good Qs Roman.

 

1. lol I hear on being leveraged...if you're not highly leveraged you're not trying! ;)

 

2. Agree, I have low six figures in the stock myself, at this very moment, and expect to hold it there for anothe 24 months.

 

3. Jim Cramer loving XM is a negative, not a positive, shit I better sell! :mrgreen:

 

4. Personalities are secondary for now, until 20M+ subs are acheived, simply because the number one draw of the service is "100% commercial free music, across 150 different channels". So right now the Howard Sterns, and Martha Stewarts, and Bob Edwards, etc, don't have as much impact as they will down the road. But I'll be long out of the stock by then.

 

5. XM is currently valued at approximately $9B in terms of market cap. If you look forward past CFBE, which is likely to occur in Q2/2006, and is also the time point historically that tech companies experience their highest growth level in terms of share price movement to the upside, you find that it's fairly easy to assign a conservative P/E ratio to the stock that lies in the 75x to 150x range.

 

It's extremely difficult to set a price target on any stock, and the analysts that do it are full of shit. However, if XM continues to sign people up at the rate they have been for the past 18 months, they'll generate enough income growth, and hype, to wind up in the $20B - $30B marketcap range, which would translate to a share price of approximately $70-$90.

 

Which leads us to your final question, and my favorite...

 

So I have a question... I know most new cars are coming with Sat Radio standard... Are they GIVING the subscriptions away for a free period of time (like On-Star... You get those services free for a year when you buy the car), and are freebies considered in the numbers you gave?

 

You're correct. They way it works currently is GM and Honda install XM-capable headunits at the factory in approximately 100 different total models. This represents right around 50% of their total vehicle output, which is double what it was just two years ago when both companies signed on.

 

Both GM and Honda are invested in XM directly, they're sharholders.

 

This year, Both Toyota, and Hyundai, signed on with XM to perform the same routine, but without any incentive or future share warrants. They will begin installing XM-capable headunits at the factory in 2006 models. Hyundai even went so far as to announce that every 2006 Hyundai made, their entire line, will have XM-headunits preinstalled. Eventually both GM, and Honda, are seen going to 100% as well, GM hinted at exactly that in their Q2/2005 conference call just two weeks ago.

 

That's big news, because here's how it works:

 

The price of the headunit is tacked onto the car and paid for by the buyer. XM then activates their subscription, and gives them 90 days of pre-paid service. If they don't opt to continue the service past the 90 day point, it's disabled.

 

Usually, as is the case with On-Star, which is older than XM in GM models, the percentage of people who elect to continue subscribing to the service beyond the initial trial period hovers in the 10 to 15% range.

 

With XM, currently 63% of both GM and Honda buyers are continuing the service on their own dime past the 90 trial period. And that percentage has actually gone UP the past 12 months instead of going down which is normally the case, a year ago the figure was in the high-50s range.

 

On the auto OEM side of the business alone, XM is capable of acheiving all pre-set goals for CFBE, EBITDA, FCFBE and true net profitability. However they're also dominating retail marketshare, and just launched the industry's first $49 satellite radio three week ago, which is big. Prior to that the entry level was $99, a tougher pill to swallow for the Average Joe.

 

I personally advise Merill Lynch's coverage analyst on XMSR, providing him with details and information on the stock, and that is no BS. I know far more than I'm revealing here, simply because they're more on the level of rumors or things that aren't verifiable. All I can say however is that XMSR moved well past the early-startup-dangerous-speculative stage about a year ago.

 

The only thing left for them to do is get subscribers, which they are at a record pace. :)

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"I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought. "

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

Don't get me strated with Sun-tzu.

 

Opportunities multiply as they are seized.

Sun Tzu

B223.gif

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Speaking of SAS... Anybody watching Fox News this morning???

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My future prediction: By week end, KOSP will be at 80. I'm in at 70.40. Earnings on Thursday.

 

* DISCLAIMER: The above should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult your licensed financial advisor before investing.

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My future prediction: By week end, KOSP will be at 80. I'm in at 70.40. Earnings on Thursday.

 

* DISCLAIMER: The above should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult your licensed financial advisor before investing.

 

Hmm, I wonder why you put that diclaimer there in there Mike? :lol:

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My future prediction: By week end, KOSP will be at 80. I'm in at 70.40. Earnings on Thursday.

 

* DISCLAIMER: The above should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult your licensed financial advisor before investing.

 

Hmm, I wonder why you put that diclaimer there in there Mike? :lol:

 

Cuz I don't wanna get no SHIT if it plummets 10 bucks!

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Anybody think we can break 11K before the end of the month?

 

What about 12K this year?

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