Anyone Believe in Peak Oil Theory?

So I am very curious about this, they say the Earth has about sixty years or so of oil left. Now I mean I know they have been making this claim for years (that oil will "run out soon") but if the Earth's supply of oil is limited, and all the major oil fields, have been discovered, then at some point it is going to legitimately start running out, that is unless oil is abiotic and we can somehow drill for it at deeper depths (it hasn't been proven that oil is really a fossil fuel, but that is the most accepted theory right now).

 

Now I know many say, "Well technology will prevent us from running out," well true, to an extent it will, but I mean if the supply of water was say running out, eventually even technology only goes so far.

 

Oil isn't just needed for energy, it is needed for all the different materials we produce, like plastics and so forth for example.

 

I know there is a lot of fearmongering about peak oil though, was wondering if any people more knowledgeable on this subject had thoughts on this...?

 

This honestly is one thing that makes me hesitant about the idea of having children too, I mean I wouldn't want to bring children into a world in which it will be reverting back to Third World status in the next few generations.

Come out to Utah. Ill show you property's that have so much oil on them it bleeds out of the ground.

Don't let the green minded hippies frighten you into thinking were running out of our most plentiful resource.

 

In articles in the US geological service they indicate there are over 8 TRILLION barrels of oil in the tar sands and oil shale of eastern Utah and western Colorado which is more then enough to sustain the US for a another 100 years.

 

That does not include the other 9 states that have tar sands and oil shale in them. Not only is there enough oil in tar sands and shale but if we liquefied coal like the Germans did in world war II we would have enough fuel to last us 2000 years +

Come out to Utah. Ill show you property's that have so much oil on them it bleeds out of the ground.

Don't let the green minded hippies frighten you into thinking were running out of our most plentiful resource.

 

In articles in the US geological service they indicate there are over 8 TRILLION barrels of oil in the tar sands and oil shale of eastern Utah and western Colorado which is more then enough to sustain the US for a another 100 years.

 

That does not include the other 9 states that have tar sands and oil shale in them. Not only is there enough oil in tar sands and shale but if we liquefied coal like the Germans did in world war II we would have enough fuel to last us 2000 years +

 

...and you've got some HOT looking women running around that place too

 

...and you've got some HOT looking women running around that place too

Come out to Utah. Ill show you property's that have so much oil on them it bleeds out of the ground.

Don't let the green minded hippies frighten you into thinking were running out of our most plentiful resource.

 

In articles in the US geological service they indicate there are over 8 TRILLION barrels of oil in the tar sands and oil shale of eastern Utah and western Colorado which is more then enough to sustain the US for a another 100 years.

 

Well the thing is, isn't that oil tough to extract right now? Also one-hundred years isn't that long.

 

That does not include the other 9 states that have tar sands and oil shale in them. Not only is there enough oil in tar sands and shale but if we liquefied coal like the Germans did in world war II we would have enough fuel to last us 2000 years +

 

2000+ years WOW where did you read this? Not saying you are wrong at all, I just mean so I have a source to point out to others.

 

I thought we had about two-hundred plus years of coal, but I didn't know if used for oil, it would last for 2000+ years...!?!?!?!

Well the thing is, isn't that oil tough to extract right now? Also one-hundred years isn't that long.

 

 

 

2000+ years WOW where did you read this? Not saying you are wrong at all, I just mean so I have a source to point out to others.

 

I thought we had about two-hundred plus years of coal, but I didn't know if used for oil, it would last for 2000+ years...!?!?!?!

Let me go find my stuff. Hold please

I thought we had about two-hundred plus years of coal, but I didn't know if used for oil, it would last for 2000+ years...!?!?!?!

 

 

DOH!

Here's one source for the coal gasification

http://www.ienergyinc.com/content/view/20/34

 

"As a related technology synthetic gasoline has been produced ever since World War II by gasifying coal and through chemical reactions called Fischer-Tropsch. Toward the end of WWII Nazi Germany produced massive quantities of synthetic gasoline from coal and kept it's war machine."

 

"It is estimated that the United States has a 2000 year reserve of coal domestically, while having an excess of coal the United States is chronically dependent upon foreign sources of oil for 60% of its oil consumption"

Im not saying I have all the answers,just adding a little outside insight

Nah I doubt we hit it before the next technological breakthrough

We will never run out of oil, in one sense.

 

Lets say a person was in a big room with 5 feet of pistachio nuts under their feet. Outside the room, pistachios are expensive, inside the room they are free. They can have as many pistachios as they want but there is only one rule, as they eat the nuts they have to leave the shells inside the room. So as time goes on it gets harder and harder to find a pistachio. It takes hours of wading through shells of pistachios they've already eaten. They realize that the pistachios are not free anymore. After a while its better to pay for nuts in the store than spending hours to extract a pistachio from the depths of the pile.

 

In the same way, decades before the last drop is found and exacted we'll move to alternative energies and walk away from oil because it would take too long to extract, making it too expensive for people.

As Kaz2 said previously, running out of oil is a misnomer. Plenty of oil left for centuries. The threat that IS real however is if demand for oil exceeds man's ability to pull it out of the ground at too fast a rate of growth.

 

I'm not going to police the numbers, others can do that, but right now we can pull approximately 80-85M barrels out of the Earth per day. That's fine when demand is sitting below that figure. However thanks to China/India and other countries whose middle class is growing at an unprecedented rate, the daily demand is leaping into an exponential curve. This will cause the price to spike dramatically over the next 20 years, which in turn will force global consumers to look for other more economically efficient (cheaper) energy sources to replace it.

 

Whale oil was the "oil" of the day 200 years ago. Until population growth occurred to the point where it became more difficult to satisfy the demand (couldn't hunt enough whales). Prices spiked in a short span, and we subsequently moved away from whale oil.

 

The cycle repeats.

I believe the theory, but theories are just, not reality, way too many other factors. Don't use that as en excuse not to have kids!

I agree with Kaz and Mako. I believe that the new source of power we'll move towards in the next 2 decades is going to be elbow grease. Not only will we be able to power our tools and machines, but we'll also be able to use it to get some shit done, like reverse hair loss, prevent economic downturn, and naturally enlarge breasts. And hey, everybody loves titties.

I agree with Kaz and Mako. I believe that the new source of power we'll move towards in the next 2 decades is going to be elbow grease. Not only will we be able to power our tools and machines, but we'll also be able to use it to get some shit done, like reverse hair loss, prevent economic downturn, and naturally enlarge breasts. And hey, everybody loves titties.

right on!

So I am very curious about this, they say the Earth has about sixty years or so of oil left. Now I mean I know they have been making this claim for years (that oil will "run out soon") but if the Earth's supply of oil is limited, and all the major oil fields, have been discovered, then at some point it is going to legitimately start running out, that is unless oil is abiotic and we can somehow drill for it at deeper depths (it hasn't been proven that oil is really a fossil fuel, but that is the most accepted theory right now).

 

Now I know many say, "Well technology will prevent us from running out," well true, to an extent it will, but I mean if the supply of water was say running out, eventually even technology only goes so far.

 

Oil isn't just needed for energy, it is needed for all the different materials we produce, like plastics and so forth for example.

 

I know there is a lot of fearmongering about peak oil though, was wondering if any people more knowledgeable on this subject had thoughts on this...?

 

This honestly is one thing that makes me hesitant about the idea of having children too, I mean I wouldn't want to bring children into a world in which it will be reverting back to Third World status in the next few generations.

 

Well the peak oil theory isn't exactly air tight, because they don't have all the facts, or they have them wrong. Many large oil producers e.g. Saudi Arabia, keep a certain ambiguity about their extraction capacities and oil reserves. Saudi Arabia hasn't drilled a new oil well for decades, some are saying oil is drying up and they extract as much water and other crap as they do oil right now,

and the cost of extracting a barrel of oil has doubled in Saudi Arabia in the last 10 years. Still it is one of the cheapest places in the world to extract it, around 3$/barrel. Iraq for example officially holds 115 billion barrels, a recent 2008 study in this matter indicates that they hold aproximately 300 billion barrels of oil in the already known oil producing regions, this number isn't yet officially endorsed for various reasons. They also have to prospect the vast western desert for oil as well, which may hold significant additional reserves. An oil engineer working for my dad, told me a lot of interesting stuff, he also stated that Iraq at full capacity can easily outpace Saudi Arabia's 10 million bbl/day. He approximated that they can easily reach 13-14 million bbl/day. Also another strong point is that Iraq's oil reserves are very underdeveloped and most of the oil is close to the surface, the cost of extracting a barrel of oil is around 1.2-1.5$ per barrel. There is plenty of oil left, and its still relatively cheap in comparison to other sources.

 

A country that has passed its peak oil production for example is Syria, they didn't have a lot of it to begin with but 7 years ago they were pumping 700,000 bbl/day, now they are at 350,000 bbl/day and by 2015 they will be a net oil importer. Same goes for Oman, Yemen, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, they have all peaked during the 90's or early 2000's but on the other hand there are countries like Iraq, Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, who's production is steadily increasing or holds enormous potential ( Iraq, Russia, Venezuela).

 

In 2000 the official count of recoverable oil was about 1.1 trillion barrels of oil. Today that number stands at 1.35 trillion barrels of oil and rising steadily. This is mostly a result of higher oil prices that made possible new exploration and reopening of older previously unprofitable wells.

Honestly i wouldn't worry about oil drying up too soon, i think we will be using oil 200-300 years from now, not on this scale but, plastics and other refined products will still be needed.

I believe Saudi alone has something like 90 years worth of oil?

Oil takes thousands, if not millions of years to create. Places where you find smaller sediment, like sand are where water sources existed. Smaller particles travel farther as the water recedes. Therefore, the sandy areas were where the water and plant life were for a long time. These places are deserts now, like the middle east. We have only used it for a hundred years or so. Maybe we only have a hundred years left. Even if we have 2000 years of oil, that is nothing in comparison to what time and depth it took to create it.

 

We will run out. We will find other sources of energy. Probably nuclear. However, there will probably be a lot of blood over the last reserves. We were fine before oil. I am sure we will change our ways again. Unfortunately, our lambos will take a big hit when we get to this point. Makes me one step closer to becoming Amish. They are not affected by the market. They dont even know when the power goes out.

Quite frankly your kids wont be affected. Your kids kids wont be affected. 100 years is a LONG time alone. in 100 years FROM NOW you will probably have great great grand children *IF you are still alive. So in all truth, who gives a shit.

Quite frankly your kids wont be affected. Your kids kids wont be affected. 100 years is a LONG time alone. in 100 years FROM NOW you will probably have great great grand children *IF you are still alive. So in all truth, who gives a shit.

 

Now we are talking. We are at least admitting it could be sooner than later. I always wonder. How many generations until I am pointless. How many generations until nobody will know who I was? I did not know my great-grandparents. I dont really know their name. They are almost nobody to me, although I would not exist without them. I have emotions for my grandparents. I am really connected with my 1 year old son. As soon as he has kids, this connection will weaken and so on. In the same regard, I want around 5 kids. However, I am worried about the quality they will have in life. I have to ask if life would be better to experience or if it will worsen. Maybe we should continue down the path we are on. Two or three generations down, who will know us? It is all relative. They will be used to the situation, as people were before we had cars.

 

It will run out and like said above, alternatives will be found. It will just take need. There are unlimited sources like the Sun that just need research to learn how to harness them.

Intresting topic

 

I just finished my Chemical and Process Engineering /Petrolchemical Degree, 60% of my degree got something to do with oil and energy including renewable energy.

 

According to Hubbert Model(Belt Curve)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

 

We are at the Peak oil NOW. although the model does not perdict which year is the exact Oil Peak, it is still reasonably accurate (-+10 years).

 

Hubbert's theory also applies to all the convetional unsustainable enegy sources( Coal, Gas, etc.).

 

My Professor told us that one day oil will not be the main energy source any more, not sure when exactly but certainly in my life time.

 

I'm 100% sure that We will have new and sustainable energy resources before the oil running out. I.e Hydrogen produced from Water Electrolysis (one of my research projects). The process uses electricity generated by renewable energy(Hydra,Wind,Geothermal,Tide,Wave,etc.) to produce hydrogen gas from water.

 

For those of you want keep the combustion engines for the weekends, the petrol/ethanol/methanol can be easily extracted from biomass. It will be at high cost but at least is Green.

 

Also, petrol can be produced from natural gas(reforming) or coal(gasfication). It is unsustainable but could be a short term solution, already doing it now.

 

Furthermore, Oil companies are now looking for ways to produce petrol/methanol from Methane Hydrates(my design project) in the seabed. It is known that the reserve energy of methane hydrates is 200 times more than the traditional form of methane.

 

 

Quite frankly your kids wont be affected. Your kids kids wont be affected. 100 years is a LONG time alone. in 100 years FROM NOW you will probably have great great grand children *IF you are still alive. So in all truth, who gives a shit.

 

wish your great great grand parents said the same about your @$$..

 

we might be not running out of oil soon, but oil is not the cleanest fuel there is.

 

I once saw a lecture on math talking about how to calculate oil life of the planet. And the prof mentioned one thing which most common guys like on the forum forget that the usage is increasing exponentially, so when you measure something like that its not a simple equation to reach 90 yrs or 2000 yrs, its pretty complicated and turns out that its much smaller than one thought. But then again 100-150 yrs is nothing considering like someone else mentioned, it took millions of yrs to make it and we guys got done with it in 200-250 yrs, how shameful and selfish of us..

Guys, the thing is, energy is not the primary concern when it comes to running out of oil, it's all the CHEMICALS OIL IS NEEDED FOR. All sorts of modern materials and such we have require oil to manufacture.

 

As for energy, I have heard we have something like 3000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas or something in this country alone, that could help!

 

so when you measure something like that its not a simple equation to reach 90 yrs or 2000 yrs, its pretty complicated and turns out that its much smaller than one thought.

 

I always thought/assumed those numbers took into account oil usage increasing exponentially when they were being calculated.

 

it took millions of yrs to make it and we guys got done with it in 200-250 yrs, how shameful and selfish of us..

 

Nothing selfish about it, we need it.

 

However, oil being a fossil fuel is only a theory. It could also be abiotic, which is the heresy theory not held by most scientists.

 

The abiotic theory holds that oil is not from past life, but is primordial, and has been around since the Earth was created. The theory holds that the oil we drill is only oil that has seeped up from a much, MUCH larger source DEEP underground that we cannot reach right now.

 

Thomas Gold, the late physicist, who had a history of proposing some radical theories that later turned out to be true, was a proponent of abiotic oil theory. He wrote a book called The Deep Hot Biosphere which tells how he believes that oil actually comes from the deep pressures of the Earth and the rocks and a massive "deep hot biosphere" of life that may out-weigh the total weight of surface life (I forget the technicals of all this).

 

The conventional fossil fuel theory of oil became dominant when they discovered biological material or chemicals in it, but Gold says this is incorrect, that the biological stuff comes from the deep hot biosphere (for those that think the idea of bacteriums producing oil sounds crazy, oil companies use bacteria to clean out the interiors of oil tanks).

 

Another interesting thing for abiotic theory is that hydrocarbons are not unique to Earth, they exist in huge quanitities throughout the entire universe, although in general in the form of methane I think.

 

Also, I don't think (I might be wrong though) that anyone has synthesized oil as we know it in a lab from biological material, like plants or animal tissue.

 

They HAVE however synthesized methane I believe by taking rocks and placing them under extreme pressure in a lab.

 

His theory, if correct, would have profound implications for things like plate tectonics, space exploration, life on other planets, and so forth.

 

Gold said it is a misconception that all life starts at the surface and then may evolve down into the crust. He said actually it is far more likely it starts in the crust, then moves to the surface. He explains the technicals for all this in the book, he delves into like fundamental questions of biology dealing with life and so forth.

 

For example, he talks about how in the 1970s they discovered forms of life that depend on hydrocarbons veing vented from cracks on the ocean floor for subsistence. These life forms themselves migrated from the surface, they are like tube worms, mollusks, etc...but they depend on the hydrocarbons for fuel. This ties big into his theory of a deep hot biosphere and how it depends on hydrocarbons he believes are deep and how the oil is thus produced.

 

Surface life relies on the Sun for survival. Without solar energy and photosynthesis, surface life cannot survive. The plants use the sunlight to subsist, and then animals eat the plant life and also each other.

 

Deep sea life that thrives on hydrocarbons do not need the sun to survive. And in theory a deep hot biosphere would not need the sun either.

 

The profound implications for his theories are numerous if proven true some day:

 

1) Unlimited oil, more than we could possibly imagine!!! Imagine the changes occuring in geopolitics and all that.

 

2) It would mean that not only does magma influence the movements of the plates (which itself was just a theory back in the 1950s, that the Earth's plates floated on magma), but that thus enormous source of oil did as well

 

3) There could be lots of life on other planets but we are unaware of it because we are biased towards searching for surface life and not life deep in the crust.

 

The main problems with the abiotic theory are that:

 

1) Oil companies have been very successful drilling for oil using the conventional theory and not at all successful in drilling using the abiotic theory

 

2) We do not have the technology to drill that deep to get to the oil even if it does exist

 

3) Scientists say that the oil could not exist at such depths due to pressures and so forth that would turn it into methane.

 

and so forth.

 

There was an experiment where they drilled in an area of rock where there should not be oil, and where it was determined oil could not have seeped from conventional oil wells, and they did strike oil, but not enough to be commercially viable.

 

Some scientists say that the plates moving allowed oil to move from conventional sources into such an area giving an appearance that oil was in a place it should not be.

 

Also there is an oil reservoir that was found to be re-filling it seems as well, although now it is depleting again.

 

Thing is, even if conventional oil sources do refill from a much deeper and larger source, it is at far too slow a rate.

 

Hopefully we will get where we can drill reeeeeaaaaaallllllly deep and someone can try drilling in some completely unconventional area and strike tons of oil.

 

I keep thinking of this geologist who went drilling for diamonds in the Arctic. He was told he was nuts, everyone knew there were no diamonds in an area like that!!!

 

Well they struck diamonds, and a SHIT LOAD of them too!! Hopefully the same will occur with oil.

 

BTW I have heard we might run out of other materials long before oil so it may be a moot point, I am sure people have heard of peak silver

 

(this is also one reason why some say it is foolish to want energy independence, as there are plenty of other materials we import as well that without which our economy would grind to a halt)

I agree with Wheels....oil is the backbone of our society. Roads, Fuel, and many of the building blocks from all of our products have oil in them. With them, we need a new building block for our society, and that right there is a major task....