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Is the EU still a good idea or bad idea


fmari
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With the current crisis in Greece doesn't it seem unfair that other countries in the EU must bail them out. What is the current opinion on the EU? Is this crisis showing the weaknesses of the EU?

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It'll straighten out. Overall EU fundamentals will take over again as the year goes on. EUR strength will return.

 

 

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How old / young is the problem with Greece? and the other "PIGS"?

Media started to write about and now the problems become aware and are present, as if the problems would have not exist long before.

Maybe this is just to take away the spot from USA, then Greece has (only) the size approx. of Ohio.

Shoud they bailout Greece, IF it is necessary? No

Why? Because they would have to bailout all the others (Portugal, Spain, Irland, and if I recall correct Greece debt's are 3 times, what Lehman had.

Greece kept there problems for very long time hidden.

What would happen to the rest of the world if Greece is not anymore part of the EU?

I think the problem would not be solved with a bailout, just postponend.

In the meantime the "too big to fail" Slogan aplies unfortunately not to the small citizen on the street. He has to look, how he can survive.

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The problem is as always that the small investor(like me) have no clue how sever the problem really are, there is no real balance sheet for a state, you can obtain. One can only believe in what the media says, or is there another way?

Is the problem with greece really no big deal? Is the drop in the euro just panicking of invetsors combined with a long squeeze? As one saw germanies growth stagneted in the 4th quarter, was it because exports became to expensive for the other nations as the euro became so strong?? If so the euro will probably not regain it´s old strenghth that fast.

What about Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland?? Is the media just waiting to expose there for now hidden problems, or is there just not more to it??

 

How can a small investor make a decision with such questions???

 

 

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To add something, I think the key is money supply and monetization, for the Eu and the US if they truly cut down on spending and stimulus as they say, we will collaps, cause there are no economic fundamentals for this rally, just money ptinted that has to go somewhere.

So imho, the time to buy is when the next stimulus is beeing announced, we could very well drift quite a bit lower till then...

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  • 2 years later...

I thought it would be interesting to bring up this thread. After 2 years it looks like everything is worse in Europe and closer than ever to a separation ( Greece).

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  • 2 weeks later...
It'll straighten out. Overall EU fundamentals will take over again as the year goes on. EUR strength will return.

 

 

Wow... You were full of shit on everything.

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Wow... You were full of shit on everything.

From my perspective not on everything, but what irritated me with Swil the most was: "if you are so smart, why are you not rich?" (at least so rich, that you can easy afford a Carrera GT)

 

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I was reading an article some time back that said that an interesting thing about the EU is that in part it was created to reign in Germany and prevent Germany from becoming too strong, but inadverdently the effect has been where Germany has again become Europe's strongest nation (at least economically).

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I was reading an article some time back that said that an interesting thing about the EU is that in part it was created to reign in Germany and prevent Germany from becoming too strong, but inadverdently the effect has been where Germany has again become Europe's strongest nation (at least economically).

 

 

I dont think that was the main reason for forming the EU... And the EU isnt responsible for Germany's strength....

 

But it certainly is the case that Germany is the economic big shot again... And their neighbors are looking to stick them with the bill for the 17 top champagne and caviar 6 course meal. And a lot of Germans are going to shake their heads and say "Hey... We only ordered water and dry toast over here... You pay for your own Creme Brulees!"

 

And we all remember what happened in Germany the last time they felt they were under-appreciated, and take advantage of... It created an environment for some very scary people who were saying some absolutely insane things to come to power... But, when people are angry... and frustrated... and legitimately worried about their own future.... The crazy can sound rational...

 

Especially to the Germans.

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And we all remember what happened in Germany the last time they felt they were under-appreciated, and take advantage of... It created an environment for some very scary people who were saying some absolutely insane things to come to power... But, when people are angry... and frustrated... and legitimately worried about their own future.... The crazy can sound rational...

 

Especially to the Germans.

 

:shock: :shock: :shock:

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I dont think that was the main reason for forming the EU... And the EU isnt responsible for Germany's strength....

 

But it certainly is the case that Germany is the economic big shot again... And their neighbors are looking to stick them with the bill for the 17 top champagne and caviar 6 course meal. And a lot of Germans are going to shake their heads and say "Hey... We only ordered water and dry toast over here... You pay for your own Creme Brulees!"

 

And we all remember what happened in Germany the last time they felt they were under-appreciated, and take advantage of... It created an environment for some very scary people who were saying some absolutely insane things to come to power... But, when people are angry... and frustrated... and legitimately worried about their own future.... The crazy can sound rational...

 

Especially to the Germans.

 

^ None of this is radical thinking, either. We can agree about what we like/dislike in politics until the sun goes down but everything listed above is right on point. Now, the only debate is - what would this situation look like? I don't think it'd be the invasion of Greece with tanks - but perhaps Germany pulling out of the EU?

 

RD, I hope you don't literally mean something like violent uprising within the German gov't - such as an ultra right-wing "Hitler II" coming to power. Is that your implication?

 

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^ None of this is radical thinking, either. We can agree about what we like/dislike in politics until the sun goes down but everything listed above is right on point. Now, the only debate is - what would this situation look like? I don't think it'd be the invasion of Greece with tanks - but perhaps Germany pulling out of the EU?

 

RD, I hope you don't literally mean something like violent uprising within the German gov't - such as an ultra right-wing "Hitler II" coming to power. Is that your implication?

 

If you imagine it happening tonight, its radical... And impossible (if that term has any meaning in this context). But any such take-over as I envision it will neither be radical nor violent...

 

I'm looking at 5-20 years down the road... Shit that happens today can be organically traced back to shit that happened 20 years ago.... One domino falls, it strikes another, and so on.... And at any time a domino can branch off and go in a direction thats very hard to anticipate... Before you realize whats happened, the dominoes are goose stepping through Europe and loading people into boxcars, while the crowds are cheering them on.

 

So yeah... When I listen to what is being proposed and I thousand yard stare the stuff, it leads nowhere good. But politicians are firemen... They REACT to the crisis in front of them without ever feeling the need to anticipate the consequences down the road... And their time frames are measured by the days til their next election... Which is incredibly short compared to the decades and generations history is measured by....

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So yeah... When I listen to what is being proposed and I thousand yard stare the stuff, it leads nowhere good. But politicians are firemen... They REACT to the crisis in front of them without ever feeling the need to anticipate the consequences down the road... And their time frames are measured by the days til their next election... Which is incredibly short compared to the decades and generations history is measured by....

 

Firemen... That's such a great way to put it! They need to be more like doctors, try and prevent rather than cure. There is currently no incentive for politicians to view things in increments longer than 4 years. I was discussing this with some friends recently, as a big national debate has sprung up on reinstating the monarchy. There is considerable support for this idea and many are advocating the idea of granting the monarch some degree of power over parliament in order to have a more efficient and responsible political system. The presumption of such a system actually being effective is that a monarch has the luxury of not being dependent on voters moods and can therefore oversee and assist in implementing a vision in the longer term regardless of which political parties are in power. I doubt it will happen but its just a debate on how to improve a political system that has disappointed many.

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  • 9 months later...

I thought it would be a good idea to visit this thread after the Cyprus bail in/out. Are you guys and more positive or negative on your outlook of the Euro?

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I thought it would be a good idea to visit this thread after the Cyprus bail in/out. Are you guys and more positive or negative on your outlook of the Euro?

 

 

What they've done in Cypress is absolutely insane... They have salted their own fcuking earth. Why would ANYBODY invest a penny in the EU, if THAT is the guarantees they have their investment will be protected?

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  • 1 year later...

Euro is down, Greece having fresh talks about exiting the EU. I am curious if Greece exits if this will have a cascading effect or not. 2015 should be interesting.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Surprise move by the Swiss today will certainly hurt the Euro. Also price of new watches will go up :-(

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