Thoughts on P1 value over time?

I've just put a deposit down on a P1, but am uncertain about completing the deal. The main thing on my mind is depreciation, especially given that new MP4-12C's are selling well below MSRP (and many barely-driven units are even cheaper).

 

The F1 dropped in price during the first years of its release, but eventually rose in value. A few things are different in the P1's case, though:

 

• When the F1 was released, it was in a league of its own. No other production car came anywhere close to its specs.
• The F1 is pretty much considered the pinnacle of pre-computer tech. There won't ever be another car like it.
• The F1, during its day, had no credible competition. The P1, however, has a handful of credible contenders.
• It's not clear to me what happens with McLaren if sales don't pick up in the next few years. It'd be a pity to be stuck with a $1.3M car with no repair options.

 

I realize the question of "will its price depreciate by a metric boatload" is essentially one of opinion, and is not definitively answerable at this time. What I'm far more interested in is whether there are any additional factors I haven't considered yet, which may end up influencing price (including, for instance, the fact that car tech seems to be advancing at an increasing pace -- top cars hold their top position for shorter and shorter times, really good performance can be had at a fraction the price, etc).

 

Thoughts?

DAMN! Congrats for being on the list. The F1 is/was a car unlike anything else. I personally think that the P1 will go up long term much like an Enzo or and F40. I truly believe that the Mac has seen such a depreciation based on it's looks alone. The performance is there and it was priced right. People just don't know what it is.

 

I think you will need to hold on to the P1 for a bit to truly see it's value increase outside of flipping it as soon as you get it.

It's very hard to say, I would approach it from another angle, short term, 5 to 10 years I'd factor in standard car depreciation as a worse case scenario, look at the numbers and see if I were happy and willing to burn that money, if prices hold or go the other way I would consider it nothing but a bonus.

 

There are many factors at play with the most important being your financial capability, if you can afford to hold long term, eventually a halo car made in a limited small number will be going up but what happens in the mean time is most crucial.

Even if the car doubles in value over 20 years your initial outlay invested otherwise could do much better.

 

In other words if you can afford it, you have $$$ to burn and you really want it who cares? As I said there are much smarter ways in which you can park a million +, I only buy toys if they make a very insignificant difference to my finances/income.

if i could, i would be next to you on the waiting list! (im still a few years away lol)

no brainer IMO

It's very hard to say, I would approach it from another angle, short term, 5 to 10 years I'd factor in standard car depreciation as a worse case scenario, look at the numbers and see if I were happy and willing to burn that money, if prices hold or go the other way I would consider it nothing but a bonus.

 

There are many factors at play with the most important being your financial capability, if you can afford to hold long term, eventually a halo car made in a limited small number will be going up but what happens in the mean time is most crucial.

Even if the car doubles in value over 20 years your initial outlay invested otherwise could do much better.

 

In other words if you can afford it, you have $$$ to burn and you really want it who cares? As I said there are much smarter ways in which you can park a million +, I only buy toys if they make a very insignificant difference to my finances/income.

 

Great points, Fortis. I don't primarily think of it as an investment (in that I'm not looking to ~make~ money off it), but I wouldn't go into it if chances were good that I'd lose my shirt. I have the money, but certainly not enough to flush it down a drain and feel no loss at all.

 

The other difficulty is assessing the odds of the company not being around. Such a limited-edition specialized car would essentially become a great-looking brick in the driveway if McLaren Automotive were to go bust. Given the number of repairs I had to do even on a 10-year-old Diablo SV, I'd be truly worried keeping a P1 running myself into its 20th year.

If you can't afford or don't want to burn and flush I would stay away, your concerns about the longevity of the company are justified, aside of few hardcore enthusiasts nobody rushes to McLaren's showrooms.

I've mentioned it before,locally McLaren slashed new car prices by $100k due to poor sales, even though everyone seems to rave about the MP4 nobody buys them here, they sold 5 or 6 units in a year, Lambo managed 5 times that selling a 10 year old platform.

Now imagine being one of the poor bastards who paid RRP for a new car, overnight his/her car is worth at least $100k less.

 

If McLaren has to close the dealership due to poor sales everyone who bought here will suffer, so people stay away, at this stage the situation is too volatile.

 

I hope McLaren will stay in business forever because I love their philosophy but in order to do so they will have to change the design of their cars, they are way to bland and because of that combined with the fact that it is a relatively unknown brand outside the enthusiast car community as a whole it isn't doing very well.

 

It's always good to win races but races don't necessarily sell cars you have to cater for the right market segment and appeal to the guy who buys exotics, their marketing failed, they cater to the enthusiast and UNFORTUNATELY not many of them can step up and write cheques.

 

I hope this will be addressed and we will see them around for long time to come, I am a big fan of the P1 but unfortunately I can't get one here, which sucks.

 

Either way good luck with whatever your decision is!

 

 

The easy answer is that it's apparently not hard to get an allocation for a P1, and it's essentially impossible to get a ThethetheFerrari. There's a message in there.

 

The biggest factor I would weigh is your confidence in the global economy. The fact is, there are lots of players right now in an excruciatingly high dollar game. ThethetheFerrari, McLaren P1, Porsche 918. That's three vehicles with an MSRP at or above $1 mil that will end up comprising nearly 2,000 units of production. Are there enough people that can say "I don't care what it costs" or "I'll take 2" to buy all the Veyrons, LaLas, P1s, 918s, etc? And out of the group of people that can, are they all skipping the $500k Aventador roadsters and cars like the F12, etc?

 

If the party never ends and new money in China, Russia, the Mid East, etc keep buying 1 of every flavor, then nobody will get hurt. Clearly ThethetheFerrari will always have a 500 buyer market, and McLaren was smart to cut production back from initial estimates. That leaves Porsche, to me, as the company that will likely leave people holding the bag after trying to sell 900 units of a $900k car regardless of the macro economy, but horribly if things slow down.

McLaren Automotive isn't going anywhere... The problems with the resale of the 12C primarily have to do with the car not significantly outperforming the f458 and losing many of the early comparos. This put a lot of people away from the car early on and now they have excess stock right when the spider came out (which is has around 85% of the sales). Of course the coupe will depreciate in the short term.

 

This is not a problem at all for the P1 since it is extremely limited 275 units and is known/assumed to be a technological speed demon. Competition in this market is much lower than it is in the supercar bracket due to the low numbers of production. I can certainly foresee the P1's resale value appreciating in the long term. The next flagship car for McLaren will be in 10 years. That's a long time to have the king of the hill.

 

They still do repairs on McLaren F1s which are far rarer than the P1 will be. I can not foresee ANY problems with ever needing something and McLaren not being able to provide it.

 

If I could ever afford a P1. I would not hesitate to buy one.

Major congrats on making the list! The F1 has been a favorite of mine since I was a kid and they were still in production. Of course, 64 road cars (107 with race versions not counting total losses) is a big difference from 375 units for the P1. Unlike Ferrari who flat out lied about how many of their hypercars would be made, McLaren stuck to their numbers with the F1. You can be assured that of the remaining number of road cars, those are all they ever produced. McLaren didn't produce "a few extra for the Pope" and you know that of those 375, many will be totaled and (unfortunately) many more will never see the light of day.

 

From everything I have read through my reading into the F1 (which has been enough to earn me a small degree) - the operating costs are NOT cheap, but the support from McLaren is top notch. I'm sure you have heard the stories of them sending out techs on overnight flights to go service a customer's F1 when it encountered problems - the P1 should be met with a similar dedication to service and parts down the road. Customers still have the F1 and drive theirs because McLaren IS so good at keeping them current and road worthy. Annual running costs into and north of USD 30k are not unheard of depending on how much you drive (with the F1). Who knows what quirks the P1 will have that will need replacing in intervals (for the F1 it's $25k fuel cell needs replaced every five years and new clutches every 3-6k miles with costs going into the five figures)!

 

It will be interesting to see maintenance requirements for the P1 as well as how they fare over time. As you have been told and can probably ascertain, hypercars are not investments - but McLaren has a track record that they are not "just another manufacturer." The F1 will continue to go up in price and McLaren's italian counterparts will continue to lie about production numbers, overproduce (like the F40), or make so many limited editions that the original becomes bland. It is a safe bet that McLaren will NOT do this but will keep initial P1 customers close to Woking and not shoo them out years down the road.

 

Good luck and keep us posted. I for one say do it - you only live once! The P1, like the F1, will blow all other super/hypercars out of the water. And in case you are still worried it won't be top dog - remember that when the F1 was in production, Bugatti produced the EB110 and Jag had their XJ220. Competition was nowhere near what it is today of course, but it wasn't the only dog in the race.

If the car stirs your soul, and you can afford it, then DO IT. A car is never an investment. You get your kick out of it, and if it happens to appreciate, even better for you (but it was already GOOD for you ) . I think opinions will change when it is out and people are driving it. Do it (and congrats) !

 

P.S. Thats the case for every car now-a-days...might as well stick to Honda or Toyota !

its really a tough one. The reason being that the super car market has progressed so rapidly in the recent years that sooner than later there will be another super car that would trump the p1. If you look at the era of the F1, there was nothing like it. carbon tub, 3 seater v-12, and limited numbers all play in favor for the value of that car. The P1 would beg the question, is it exclusive enough? With a plethora of 1 milion + cars out there, what is the possiblity of its value going up in the future. Lets keep in mind 500 vs 100 some in production number is quite a jump as well....

its really a tough one. The reason being that the super car market has progressed so rapidly in the recent years that sooner than later there will be another super car that would trump the p1. If you look at the era of the F1, there was nothing like it. carbon tub, 3 seater v-12, and limited numbers all play in favor for the value of that car. The P1 would beg the question, is it exclusive enough? With a plethora of 1 milion + cars out there, what is the possiblity of its value going up in the future. Lets keep in mind 500 vs 100 some in production number is quite a jump as well....

Not to mention that with more competition comes a greater likelihood that Mclaren could do a P1 Version 2.0 or something which could potentially hurt P1 values.

 

Congrats on making the list!

The P1 is an amazing car. Unlike the F1, there are many options in its price range. I highly doubt the P1 will ever be worth more than sticker. Unfortunately, I do not see that car doing very well.

It is really hard to say. When the F1 was produced, Mclaren couldn't give them away for a long time and that is why they made so many race cars. When the F1 stopped racing, the Harrod's cars could have been obtained for 300000 pounds. Try and get a picture of one for that kind of money now.

I don't believe anyone buying a P1 is going to lose their shirt but the upwards potential is anybody's guess.

It is really hard to say. When the F1 was produced, Mclaren couldn't give them away for a long time and that is why they made so many race cars. When the F1 stopped racing, the Harrod's cars could have been obtained for 300000 pounds. Try and get a picture of one for that kind of money now.

I don't believe anyone buying a P1 is going to lose their shirt but the upwards potential is anybody's guess.

It is really hard to say. When the F1 was produced, Mclaren couldn't give them away for a long time and that is why they made so many race cars. When the F1 stopped racing, the Harrod's cars could have been obtained for 300000 pounds. Try and get a picture of one for that kind of money now.

I don't believe anyone buying a P1 is going to lose their shirt but the upwards potential is anybody's guess.

 

 

 

Great points but I do not see any similarities between the P1 and the F1.

 

We all know what made the F1 special. When the F1 came out the million dollar car market didn't exist. People had to get used to the idea of a million + dollar cars. As much as I would love to see the P1 thrive, I don't see anything about it that will drive the demand in the future. For a car to become an icon it needs to stand out from the competition.

 

If it destroy every other lap time at the ring, there may be a slight bump in interest, but someone will come along and best it within 2 years. I think it is missing the wow factor it would need to be the king of an era.

Great points but I do not see any similarities between the P1 and the F1.

 

We all know what made the F1 special. When the F1 came out the million dollar car market didn't exist. People had to get used to the idea of a million + dollar cars. As much as I would love to see the P1 thrive, I don't see anything about it that will drive the demand in the future. For a car to become an icon it needs to stand out from the competition.

 

If it destroy every other lap time at the ring, there may be a slight bump in interest, but someone will come along and best it within 2 years. I think it is missing the wow factor it would need to be the king of an era.

 

I think it will all boil down to if it sets a benchmark in a certain area. It will not be top speed and certainly not beauty, but maybe in the handling and track ability. Time will tell.

I also believe the Veyron and the P1 will follow the same curve over the next 10 years.

The question is, if they set a new ring record and Nissan will better it a year later in their $100k GTR will you need an iTunes account for updates?

 

 

The question is, if they set a new ring record and Nissan will better it a year later in their $100k GTR will you need an iTunes account for updates?

No there will be a commemorative Xbox controller which will allow you to put the magic combo of X X X Down, Left, Y Y Y Up, Right to get you onto the next level and give you 5 extra BHP. Mac OS will not be supported.

No there will be a commemorative Xbox controller which will allow you to put the magic combo of X X X Down, Left, Y Y Y Up, Right to get you onto the next level and give you 5 extra BHP. Mac OS will not be supported.

I'm of course partial to Konami codes, so would prefer U-U-D-D-L-R-L-R-A-B-Select-Start.

 

@RaginBull: I do think the competitive field is a big concern, and also the rate of technological advancement. Top cars just can't stay top for a long time these days. So the biggest drop may well be in the first 10 years, where the alternatives are just much better performing. It's only when the thing you're "rare" about is no longer performance (like in the F1's case, what's rare is the market-defining last-of-a-generation aspect of it; in the 99 Diablo, it'd be the last-to-be-welded-together-non-VW-Audi-ness of it) that price starts (in some cases) moving back in your favor.

 

I certainly don't have $1.3M to drop just for the fun of it. Can't afford several hundred thousand depreciation in a few years. Not sure I would be willing to hold it 20 years to recoup some of it (if ever); and also not sure whether maintenance during those years will easily wash away any gains. Compound it with the risk (real or perceived) that McLaren Automotive may not be around to make good on the repairs a decade from now... it's mostly stacking up against completing the deal.

I think had they never tried to become a new car company but rather just followed up the f1 with the p1 then it would have been a safer bet.

 

That being said, if not a lot of people are biting p1's then they'll cut down production numbers like they did for the carrera gt and the ford gt and lambo SV, etc. Then your car becomes more rare.

 

Congrats though on being able to afford a P1. Have you thought about buying a Veyron instead? I fell like that car has a guaranteed upside.

I certainly don't have $1.3M to drop just for the fun of it. Can't afford several hundred thousand depreciation in a few years. Not sure I would be willing to hold it 20 years to recoup some of it (if ever); and also not sure whether maintenance during those years will easily wash away any gains. Compound it with the risk (real or perceived) that McLaren Automotive may not be around to make good on the repairs a decade from now... it's mostly stacking up against completing the deal.

 

I am sure you are aware of it but just to put it in perspective, the money you'd spend on the P1 placed in a compounding interest account at 6%/annum

 

Aside of few extremely rare cars which have done very well, some by chance some by luck some by being at the right place at the right time I can't think of any car worth investing in.

 

Even if it doubles itself in value over 20 years you will still be way behind, so if you aren't prepared to lose your shirt or have money to burn I wouldn't do it.

 

If you love it and you can afford it, you only have one life, go for it

 

To be honest, I can't see anything beating the P1's performance in the next 5-10 years. Ferrari isn't gonna release a new flagship before that time and Porsche needs a complete philosophical change to even get close. Who else is there? Pagani's Huayra is pretty far behind considering even the 12C is close in performance to it.

To be honest, I can't see anything beating the P1's performance in the next 5-10 years. Ferrari isn't gonna release a new flagship before that time and Porsche needs a complete philosophical change to even get close. Who else is there? Pagani's Huayra is pretty far behind considering even the 12C is close in performance to it.

That may or may not be true, but 5-10 years is the worst part of the depreciation curve for rare cars, right? The same happened to the F1 during its first 10 years -- basically a financial disaster.

 

I think what really causes appreciation is that the then-15-year-olds eventually become 35-year-olds that have money, or the then-35-year-olds become 55-year-olds undergoing midlife crises... that's what causes performance sports cars to appreciate, on rare occasion, only 2-3 decades later, right?

 

Exhibit One: Countach.

accelerator I got to give it to you, your obsession with the brand it's something else, I admire your passion, definitely LP McFanboy # 1 but you make such bold statements about a car you really know very little about, you know nothing about what other car makers have in the pipeline in order to accurately compare, for all we know 5 years from now a GTR could wipe the floor with a P1 and all other current hyper cars, can we just wait until some proper test results are available before we make those claims?