Malaysia Airlines loses contact with plane carrying 239 people

CNN's National Security reporter Jim Sciutto @jimsciutto says US officials tell him that the stolen passports used to board MH370 fit the pattern of human trafficking.

 

 

That would be just my luck.

 

 

I'd finally save up enough money to pay someone to smuggle me to another country and countless opportunity for a rebirth. I'd get all prepared for it, say goodbye to my relatives and tell them I will set up a new life and then send for them.

 

I'd make it through security and on the plane to a better life and then my fcuking plane would disappear.

It's been two days and not a single piece of anything has been found. Not a shirt, not a body, not a hat not a shoe....NOTHING after two days of 36 planes, dozens of boats, and helicopters searching for what would be a massive plane, 250 bodies, thousands of pieces of clothes. hundreds of seat cushions. I don't sense a "massive explosion". It would be spread across dozens of miles probably, but it would be floating.

 

 

Since NOTHING is being found, I think the plane went into the ocean as a whole piece (for the most part) for whatever reason. That's why they are not finding anything. I think the stolen passport/terrorist talk is nonsense and will turn out to just be two guys with stolen passports. The media is going to report the craziest BS information it can think of.

 

The ONLY facts are the same from day 1.

 

1) Plane is missing

 

2) Nothing has been recovered.

 

3) Pilots reported nothing.

 

 

 

It's VERY possible there was simply a decompression incident or something of the like, pilots and everyone blacked out and died and the plane went down. It can happen. That's what happened to pro golfer Payne Stewart. Air traffic asked them to climb , there was simply "no response". They scrambled a jet to look at the plane. The plane was still flying and the pilots were dead. It could happen on a commercial plane too.

 

http://www.cnn.com/US/9911/23/stewart.crash.03/

 

It's been two days and not a single piece of anything has been found. Not a shirt, not a body, not a hat not a shoe....NOTHING after two days of 36 planes, dozens of boats, and helicopters searching for what would be a massive plane, 250 bodies, thousands of pieces of clothes. hundreds of seat cushions. I don't sense a "massive explosion". It would be spread across dozens of miles probably, but it would be floating.

 

 

Since NOTHING is being found, I think the plane went into the ocean as a whole piece (for the most part) for whatever reason. That's why they are not finding anything. I think the stolen passport/terrorist talk is nonsense and will turn out to just be two guys with stolen passports. The media is going to report the craziest BS information it can think of.

 

The ONLY facts are the same from day 1.

 

1) Plane is missing

 

2) Nothing has been recovered.

 

3) Pilots reported nothing.

 

 

 

It's VERY possible there was simply a decompression incident or something of the like, pilots and everyone blacked out and died and the plane went down. It can happen. That's what happened to pro golfer Payne Stewart. Air traffic asked them to climb , there was simply "no response". They scrambled a jet to look at the plane. The plane was still flying and the pilots were dead. It could happen on a commercial plane too.

 

http://www.cnn.com/US/9911/23/stewart.crash.03/

 

It has happened before: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

 

 

Wonder if they are looking in the wrong place, if there was an incident and the plane kept flying on autopilot.

I also read that the pilots of the Air France crash where the pilots stalled the plane also never radioed that there was any trouble going on.

They're looking in the wrong spoit.

They're looking in the wrong spoit.

whats a spoit?

whats a spoit?

A place where planes crash.

A place where planes crash.

you sure he didn't misspelled "spot" instead? because if it means a plane crash site..how can there be a wrong one?

you sure he didn't misspelled "spot" instead? because if it means a plane crash site..how can there be a wrong one?

Could knot bee a posibal misspelled wurd

Military radar suggests the missing Malaysia Airlines plane turned west, away from its planned route, before vanishing, Malaysia's air force says.

Military radar suggests the missing Malaysia Airlines plane turned west, away from its planned route, before vanishing, Malaysia's air force says.

 

Bust out the tin foil Hats

I think the stolen passport/terrorist talk is nonsense and will turn out to just be two guys with stolen passports. The media is going to report the craziest BS information it can think of.

 

You pretty much nailed this one Castor. Looks like just a couple of young guys from Iran who were trying to migrate at this point.

 

Sprite and Roman are also right, they are widening the search because they could've been looking in the wrong area. It may have well changed course like the military had said. They believe military radar tracked it to the Strait of Malacca and are now searching there as well.

 

Pilots have gotten lost before because of their error. In 1995, an American Airlines flight to Colombia accidentally deleted waypoints in the 757's Flight Management System and went off course in a mountain range. That left the pilots unaware of their real location (as they thought they were still following the waypoints) and eventually crashed into a mountain.

 

Perhaps something went wrong with the electronics and radio and they tried to turn back but got disoriented flying way off course.

Pretty cool search technique:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_search_theory

 

The usual procedure is as follows:

Formulate as many reasonable hypotheses as possible about what may have happened to the object.

For each hypothesis, construct a probability density function for the location of the object.

Construct a function giving the probability of actually finding an object in location X when searching there if it really is in location X. In an ocean search, this is usually a function of water depth — in shallow water chances of finding an object are good if the search is in the right place. In deep water chances are reduced.

Combine the above information coherently to produce an overall probability density map. (Usually this simply means multiplying the two functions together.) This gives the probability of finding the object by looking in location X, for all possible locations X. (This can be visualized as a contour map of probability.)

Construct a search path which starts at the point of highest probability and 'scans' over high probability areas, then intermediate probabilities, and finally low probability areas.

Revise all the probabilities continuously during the search. For example, if the hypotheses for location X imply the likely disintegration of the object and the search at location X has yielded no fragments, then the probability that the object is somewhere around there is greatly reduced (though not usually to zero) while the probabilities of its being at other locations is correspondingly increased. The revision process is done by applying Bayes' theorem.

In other words, first search where it most probably will be found, then search where finding it is less probable, then search where the probability is even less (but still possible due to limitations on fuel, range, water currents, etc.), until insufficient hope of locating the object at acceptable cost remains.

The advantages of the Bayesian method are that all information available is used coherently (i.e., in a "leak-proof" manner) and the method automatically produces estimates of the cost for a given success probability. That is, even before the start of searching, one can say, hypothetically, "there is a 65% chance of finding it in a 5-day search. That probability will rise to 90% after a 10-day search and 97% after 15 days" or a similar statement. Thus the economic viability of the search can be estimated before committing resources to a search.

Apart from the USS Scorpion, other vessels located by Bayesian search theory include the MV Derbyshire, the largest British vessel ever lost at sea, and the SS Central America. It also proved successful in the search for a lost hydrogen bomb following the 1966 Palomares B-52 crash in Spain, and the recovery in the Atlantic Ocean of the crashed Air France Flight 447.

Bayesian search theory is incorporated into the CASP (Computer Assisted Search Program) mission planning software used by the United States Coast Guard for search and rescue. This program was later adapted for inland search by adding terrain and ground cover factors for use by the United States Air Force and Civil Air Patrol.

The media is going to report the craziest BS information it can think of.

 

 

I agree with all the points in your post but I wouldn't say that people boarding planes with stolen passports is BS information.

 

True it may not be relevant to why this particular plane disappeared but hopefully this brings some awareness that people can still use deception to get on a plane. In this case perhaps just for the purpose of fleeing their country, but could be for worse reasons next time.

 

I almost broke down sobbing coming back from Vegas because I lied on my declaration card (I said I wasn't bringing any meat back but I knew all along I had a sealed bag of Jack's Links Turkey Jerky in my suitcase) and yet these guys use stolen passports to fly from country to country. Damn.

 

On Mar 11th 2014 Malaysia's Air Force reported their primary radar data suggest, the aircraft may have turned west over the Gulf of Thailand at about 1000 meters/3000 feet below the original flight level (editorial note: another possible interpretation could be: at 1000 meters of height compared to 10000 meters original level) and flown past the east coast near Khota Baru and the west coast of Malaysia near Kedah, the radar return was last seen at 02:40L near Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca, about 285nm westsouthwest of the last known (secondary) radar position. Local Police at Khota Bharu confirmed a number of locals reported lights and a low flying aircraft at Khota Bharu at an estimated height of 1000 meters/3000 feet.

 

Interesting.

That has been discussed but as RomanDad alluded to, that scenario or hijacking wouldn't cause the plane to disappear off radar. I believe the plane could even be discovered by a passive radar which would not necessarily communicate with the planes transponder, but would just throw a signal out there and see what bounces back (from my understanding of watching "Mayday" all the time....what Air Disaster is called up here).

 

Another thing is that it is unlikely both blackboxes would have been destroyed in the collision with the water, they are designed to withstand that impact.

 

I'm still not sure why they don't make planes out of the same shit they make blackboxes because they can withstand anything, but I digress...

 

I would guess newer blackboxes on a 777 would have beacons which throw a signal for 30 days or so.

 

Just a bizarre story and I have to imagine they will find the damn thing soon.

 

Didnt the air france crash take like 3 years to find? And the boxes were still pinging. They should last 6 years.

Then again the plane when down in very deep ocean sea.

Where this went down is far more shallow.

My understanding of the boxes is that you have to be close and a good line of sight.

 

Even some of the equipment onboard other than the bb send signals but it is low tech and not enough info.

Military radar suggests the missing Malaysia Airlines plane turned west, away from its planned route, before vanishing, Malaysia's air force says.

 

 

And flew for hundreds of miles BACK past malaysia according to what I just heard.

I had wondered how far the plane could've gone if left to fly...

 

Found this by Leeham News, which is run by Leeham Co. (aerospace consultants etc)

 

..."We started with the fuel required for Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, a 2,700 mile trip, and added a 500mi reserve. Then we subtracted the distance to the last known point of contact on the intended flight path and the same amount for the reported U-turn back to KUL. It’s been reported (as noted in our previous post) that military radar tracked the plane to the west coast of Malaysia.

 

With this new calculation, we estimated the distance remaining for the Boeing 777 and here’s what we got, plotting on the Great Circle Mapper:"

I had wondered how far the plane could've gone if left to fly...

 

Found this by Leeham News, which is run by Leeham Co. (aerospace consultants etc)

 

..."We started with the fuel required for Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, a 2,700 mile trip, and added a 500mi reserve. Then we subtracted the distance to the last known point of contact on the intended flight path and the same amount for the reported U-turn back to KUL. It’s been reported (as noted in our previous post) that military radar tracked the plane to the west coast of Malaysia.

 

With this new calculation, we estimated the distance remaining for the Boeing 777 and here’s what we got, plotting on the Great Circle Mapper:"

That's a shit load of real estate....

 

 

My partner in crime just threw out two " out there" theory's. He did the same calculations above and concluded "they might have made it to Somalia" (hijacking?).... Or that a combination of terrorism/CF resulted in a Payne Stewart ghost plane.

Oh my fcuking God!!! That is the most incredible thing ever!!!

 

 

A Current Affair is still on? I thought they got cancelled twenty years ago...

 

 

Now... What was the story?

 

 

So one question, why has it taken four days for this info to break?

 

 

 

So one question, why has it taken four days for this info to break?

 

It's chinatown jake...

 

 

Interesting read. Wonder if it played a part...

 

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/avi...gen-regulations