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exitr

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  1. I don't see too much of an issue with them looking so similar. They have significantly different price points, significantly different performance, and none will be available at the same time. Valkyrie is long since sold out. 003 will sell out next, and then a year or two later Vanquish will be available for all. They are very different in compromise too. Valkyrie is borderline not a road car, definitely not an everyday affair. 003 is a bit more usable, though still very much only a weekender that the wife will likely not enjoy and seems to have barely any storage. Vanquish is the daily just like a Huracan or 720S. Similar appearances don't matter so long as they are all good looking. I believe every 488 owner would be more than happy to have a 700 hp TT v8, aluminum ThethetheFerrari for $300,000. Likewise, I believe every 911 Turbo buyer wouldn't mind having TT flat 6, aluminum 918 car for $300,000. The thing about halo car design is that, generally speaking, there is nothing that expensive about most of the designs. The designs reflect the selling price, not necessarily the cost of building. You could build a ThethetheFerrari or P1 or 918 out of aluminum. They'd look identical and just weigh more. This is what Aston is doing. They are taking million dollar designs and just adjusting the cost of the components underneath the paint. I think it's going to be a smashing success and change the way exotics are designed and sold. You aren't going to be able to sell a Huracan or 488 if Aston Martin is selling hypercar designs for the same price.
  2. I really like what I see. These designs seem very far ahead of the competition. Compare the "aero" on the SVJ to these. White one is called RB-003 (a toned down Valkyrie) and the green one is the new Vanquish, which will be a normal exotic similar to Ferrari/McLaren/Lamborghini. The Valkyrie was much out of my price range, and RB-003 will probably be too, but Vanquish should be around $300K. Vanquish looks incredible and is probably the most usable for a road car of the three anyway.
  3. exitr

    Aventador SV-J roadster

    Love the color, but in general I hate the car. I don't understand the need for all the over-the-top vents, diffusers, wings, etc. It has more stuff tacked on that a real GT3 car. 800 cars is a lot, especially at these prices. Too much competition. Big premium to pay just for an NA engine.
  4. exitr

    Salomondrin.....

    IANAL, but what exactly would his case be here? His car burned down and he was made financially whole by his insurance, and maybe more so if he had insured the premium. He has no claims that I'm aware of. You must show damages in court and anxiety from a car catching on fire won't pass the sniff test as far as I know. He safely got out of the fire and even started to record a video of it for the Internet. It would be like suing Boeing because a plane had a malfunction and now you're scare to fly. The reality is, in my opinion, that his channel is a financial failure. It really doesn't get that many views and he definitely loses a lot of money on his cars. His viewership is one that requires him to spend a lot of money on cars and he no doubt loses a fortune on many of them. I'm guessing he no longer wants to pay his friends to do it anymore either. Or he's just doing it for some sensational views. Unless we see someone else driving around in his cars, then he probably didn't even sell them. I highly doubt he has any standing to sue McLaren for anything. He also bought the car used, thus he isn't the first owner and cannot Lemon Law it. In fact, I believe this would almost certainly ruin any claims he could make against McLaren. For all they know, the previous owner screwed with it.
  5. I don't believe Aperta's are anywhere near $450,000. They are over $600,000 still in the US. That said, he seems to drive his cars a lot so he will be in for a rude awakening regarding depreciation on Ferraris. They do hold their value very well as LE cars, but most also barely have any mileage. His car will likely be worth a lot less if he puts 10-15K miles on it.
  6. I do agree the site is harder to read. Everything is too closely sized and spaced. New topics don't really standout. Everything is just too homogeneous. The post-looks-like-a-quote thing is odd too. That's not why it's less active though. It's pretty simple to explain: It was down for too long, people stopped checking after a few weeks and no updates, and now they don't really care anymore. It's a very common occurrence with websites. Significant downtime can destroy a community. Ferrari Chat and other forums seem just as active as usual. McLaren Life and Rennlist seem normal too. It didn't help that the site was essentially 404 for weeks either, with no messages or updates. It was weeks before the site even said it was upgrading and coming back. One day it was up, the next it was gone. Then it said to visit the Facebook page, which didn't exist as far as I could tell. The old forum should not have been taken down until the new one was ready. I'm not sure why that happened. It's very easy to duplicate a database and build the new version without disabling the old one. Unless there is a really compelling reason for people to come back, I wouldn't count on it happening. This is just my opinion though.
  7. exitr

    Recession coming?

    Also, you can't "short" your house or buy puts on it, per se, but you can do that with RE-oriented stocks (home builders maybe?) or maybe even REITs. This would be just as risky probably, but less of a hassle and you could undo your decision at a moments notice if you change your mind. You can't undo a house sale. The best way to sell at the top and avoid a downturn is to do it via securities. You don't need to protect your own house value if you can short someone else's... Just my two cents.
  8. exitr

    Recession coming?

    It's unrealistic for anyone in a "normal" price range to sell their home at the top to avoid a downturn. Unlike stocks, you still need a place to live so you'd either have to buy something cheap (not nice) or rent something really cheap (also not nice). If you're in the high-end market of $5M homes or something, sure, you could probably come out a head and still live someplace nice since it's not like $1M homes are so unbearable. Also keep in mind that if you sell at the top, you may have a capital gain. This can often be put into a special account used to buy another home, but there will surely be time limits on this and the downturn might not happen soon enough. After it's all said and done, you'll have to pay commissions, fees, taxes, rent, capital gains, lose tax savings, have to deal with the hassle of moving, and potentially live someplace not very nice for an undetermined amount of time that may or may not ever come. You could be wrong and the market is fine.
  9. exitr

    Recession coming?

    Like I said, the credit risk is much lower because underwriting standards have improved significantly and interest rates make stuff significantly more affordable. $500,000 @ 4.5% for 30 years = $2500/month $500,000 @ 7.5% for 30 years = $3500/month $350,000 @ 7.5% for 30 years = $2500/month So people today can get a $500,000 house at the same expense as a $350,000 house 10 years ago. What happened in 2007 was people were getting $500,000 houses that ended up at 7.5%, became unaffordable, and some even took equity out of that quickly became even more negative equity on top of the now lower priced asset. The deals are long gone for RE and it needs to go sideways for quite a while in my opinion. The plus side is that we don't have a decade of home owners at high interest rates and high prices. We hav e a decade of home buyers who got amazing deals and low interest rates. They've already built a reasonable amount of equity not only through appreciation but also 5-10 years of payments, and they had to pass stringent underwriting and had down payments. Only those buying at the top now are "risky", and it only really becomes a problem if interest rates go up and prices keep going up for quite a few more years. One year of splurging and excess isn't going to tank the economy.
  10. exitr

    Recession coming?

    Not sure, but more important than home prices themselves are interest rates and underwriting quality. Underwriting has improved massively and interest rates are still low. Credit quality has been pretty good in recent years. No more NINJA loans etc. Imagine buying a house for $300K that's $100K overvalued. If interest rates were 0% (which they aren't), then you'd have a $1000/month payment after it's all said and done on a 30 year mortgage. That's very, very affordable and it doesn't really matter if it's overvalued because you'll be renting for $1000/month in something much worse anyway. Interest rates are more like 4.5% right now, but that's still pretty low and were in the 3s not that long ago. House prices have gone up because interest rates have been so low and has allowed people to spend more (ask more). With interest rates climbing, you're going to see housing cooling off, but not necessarily crashing. Also keep in mind that everyone who bought in 2010 is already 8 years into their loan. People who bought in 2014 are 4 years into their loan. Everyone in the last 7-8 years got good deals and locked in low rates, ensuring they are probably nicely into equity by now. The risk of defaults is very low for this enormous pool of loans. In 2007 and 2008, interest rates were 6.5-7.5%. That's significantly higher than they have been the last 10 years. I'm not a buyer of real estate at these prices, but I'm not predicting a crash/recession either. One year of overpriced loans will not tank the 10 years of good deals and low rates before it, in my opinion.
  11. exitr

    Fcuking loaner!

    Yes, these are far too expensive for what they are in my opinion. Of course they're nice, but at the end of the day you aren't getting anything that high-end or cutting edge. For $600,000 you get a composite body and monocage from Lamborghini. For $90,000 you can get a 300 mile range electric powertrain with some form or another of self-driving. For $40,000 you can even get a semi-composite construction BMW i3 (which coincidentally owns Rolls Royce). You would think that for $600,000 and what is essentially unrestricted in size that you would get the most cutting edge car possible. Sadly, you don't, and it's a shame because everything that it should buy would help the car tremendously and fit the persona perfectly. 1. Composite construction would drastically lower weight and remove the need for excessive reinforcement of the Drophead. 2. Going to an electric drivetrain would increase the weight, but drastically lower the center of gravity and provide insane amounts of torque, which is exactly what heavy cars need most. Real torque vectoring. 3. Given the size, they could fit and afford to put a massive battery pack allowing for huge range. Never visit a gas station again. 4. Given the price, the cost of batteries would be irrelevant to the buyer. 5. Electric cars are "silent", which is exactly what RR goes for. 6. The frunk would be enormous. 7. All the awesome stuff that comes with electric, connected cars like turning the AC on ahead of time remotely, and so forth. Rolls Royce are nice but they're really falling behind in what luxury mobility should mean today. Well, at least that's my opinion. I'm not really impressed with the strange glass "Gallery" thing. Really bizarre thing to spend so much time/money on.
  12. Well, it certainly lives up to it's name. The Aventador. The Aventador line has been getting a bit over the top. Too many vents. Less is sometimes more. The 918 didn't need all these channels for air...
  13. Hi Kinsella, Am I sure? Hehe, not at all. I have no idea what happens to the battery power in any of those cars on the Nordschleife. It's a bit of a how long is a piece of string kind of question. The Nordschliefe is really long, so given a long enough lap or long enough race, all cars will run out of fuel, be it gasoline or electricity. All cars will run out of tire too. When each car runs out of what is anyone's guess. Based on absolutely no experience of my own and being a complete armchair racer, I think that those 3 cars will be quicker on any reasonable length circuit. Might they run out of juice on the Nordschliefe? Sure, but maybe the Jota runs out of fuel quicker on multiple laps or wears the tires too quickly with it's weight. Hot laps is a great way to sell cars, but there's a reason that real motorsport has rules Disclaimer: I only like rally racing and don't pay too much attention to traditional motorsport.
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