So I know we're not supposed to talk politics - Presidential Election - Poll

He will keep on doing it for the rest of his life, isn't he on some sort of a pension?

 

Yup

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BCHOgtzyT9I

Yup

 

 

 

I love that guy!

Hoping O'Leary runs for Conservative lead in Canada.. Obozo 2.0 is a disgrace. Granted Im headed to SoCal asap... Canadians still deserve a better leader

Trump just gave his first interview to European press. In it, among other things he said that other countries in the EU should follow the UK's lead and leave it as it's the "smart" thing to do. While the UK's decision to leave is a matter of the British people's choice, encouraging others to do so at this point in time, is in my view a way to deliberately undermine the EU. He blamed the refugee crisis for the Brexit result and thinks that had the refugee crisis not happened things would have been different and the EU could have worked.

 

His predecessor, that fuckwit, Obama, had a big hand in encouraging the disaster in Syria by arming the numerous different factions he liked and caused an all out civil war for no reason other than Assad not being a dictator that's on the US's good side. In turn, the civil war caused the refugee crisis that we all have to deal with now. Not blaming only Obama for it as all major powers had a hand in the disaster.

 

Then Trump comes along, who now seems to me even more naive about history, and says the above without understanding the EU has worked for many decades now, not only that but it is the underlying political construct that virtually guaranteed peace (economic peace) in Europe and helped and influenced the transition to full fledged democracy of eastern European states. Without the EU it would have been nigh impossible in just one generation or perhaps not at all.

Undermining such an important and influential political construct is down right irresponsible. Especially now when unity in action and policy is needed more than ever. This sort of bullshit is only in the interest of ONE country. Russia. If you guys haven't really understood Putin's long term goal let me spell it out in an oversimplified way.

 

Basically the Russians know that in their current political system they will never be able to reach the sort of development and prosperity that exists in the West, nor the clout or influence that brings. So the only way for them to prevail against the West is to drag us all down to their level. How to best do that? Create disunity, turn everyone against everyone, divide and conquer. Have you guys never heard Putin's rhetoric of a multi polar world? It is the major pillar of their foreign policy! Why do they want multiple pillars of influence? More voices, more disunity? Because that way we won't ever agree on anything and they, by virtue of the intrinsic superpower status that their country has (because of size, population, nuclear arsenal and resources) can in fact gain more influence and get a seat at every table. They can never stand up to a united western block. Why do they support every fringe weirdo movement that can further their goals (if it's not in Russia of course)? Even in the USA they support secessionist movements especially in Texas and now even in California.

The Russians say it constantly, they don't hide it.

 

The West won the last Cold War and will win the next one too. If it's us against them, we, the west, will always prevail. But when it's everyone against everyone in Putin's multi-polar world with multi-vector policies (and that's a quote that is oft repeated by Putin and Russian officials), basically a state of permanent instability and shifting alliances, they might actually stand a chance, because of their small central command structure that is for the most part uncountable for any of its actions. They pursue this multi-polar world not because they believe it is the right thing to do but because it is the only world in which they matter without unleashing nuclear hell.

 

I had my reservations regarding Trump, but I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, it's too early to judge him imo, and it would be unfair to do so, but he started off on the wrong foot at least as far as Europe is concerned. He also said that he'd start by trusting Putin and giving him the benefit of the doubt. Imo that is naive and irresponsible. The Russians are not benign in the slightest, they are bitter and resentful of the West, loosing an ideological war on the scale that they did is absolutely devastating for a society, this has happened time and time again in history we have examples in the past. Dealing fairly is one thing, trusting blindly is dangerous and can have disastrous consequences.

 

If you want to get a bit more insight into the Russian view of the world, I suggest reading Foundations of Geopolitics by Alexander Dugin, this book is mandatory reading for all Russians in high level military, security services and politics. It's not what you expect, as it has it's share of borderline conspiracies etc in it, but the ideas expressed in the book of how Russia should move forward are the backbone of Russian policy in the 21st century. So don't discount it easily. The "multi polar world with multi vector policies" that the Russians try to encourage and create everywhere has its origins in the set of ideas expressed in that book.

So I'm pretty dense when it comes to the EU...but without Germany basically having it's shit together wouldn't the EU pretty much be a failed concept? I was reading that there are more countries dragging the Euro down than propping it up (ie: Greece, Spain, etc). Thoughts?

 

Definitely gonna read that book! Thanks for the suggestion.

So I'm pretty dense when it comes to the EU...but without Germany basically having it's shit together wouldn't the EU pretty much be a failed concept? I was reading that there are more countries dragging the Euro down than propping it up (ie: Greece, Spain, etc). Thoughts?

 

Definitely gonna read that book! Thanks for the suggestion.

The EU is not some mutual savings scheme, but I can't detail all the functions on here, it would bore everyone to death, look it up, plenty of info available, EU is a a bit like a federal government in the US but with a lot less power and quite different functions. Germany is important because it is the largest country in terms of population and has biggest economy in absolute value, per capita there are richer countries, many in fact. Think about it in terms of how American states are, NY or California ofc have more importance than Idaho or Montana, but that doesn't mean they're weighing down the country simply because in absolute value they have a lower GDP. In terms of Greece's woes, Greece has 10 million of the 450 million people in the EU. Greece's problems aren't as big as they're made out to be in the grand scheme of things. Spain has been doing a lot better lately, and for the past 2 years the economy has been recovering at an accelerating pace, high unemployment is still an issue (especially among young people) but they're not in a position of requiring major bailouts or anything. It's a tall order to consider the negative effects of Greece's economy as a counterweight to Germany.

Greece and Germany cannot share the same currency , its just a matter of time before everyone realizes it.

Greece and Germany cannot share the same currency , its just a matter of time before everyone realizes it.

 

I've been watching the EU from the outside in for years now...To me it looked like the writing was on the wall years ago, about halfway through Obama's first term. I'm surprised Brexit didn't happen sooner. While I am neutral about the EU staying together or dissolving, it does seem to me the Germany is keeping 90% of it together while other countries (like Greece, Austria and Spain for a while) where selfishly causing problems that rippled across the entire EU. What I find funny is that the EU was created partially to keep Germany specifically from rising to power and prominence, and yet now Germany is the most powerful and prominent country in the EU (and the one holding a lot of loans too). You can't keep the Germans down it seems...

 

Roman or Fortis...care to chime in on the EU? You guys seem very informed and your insight would be pretty interesting.

Roman or Fortis...care to chime in on the EU? You guys seem very informed and your insight would be pretty interesting.

 

It's fucked.

It's fucked.

 

Last time I checked, the US hit its debt ceiling and shut down federal institutions....that will happen in a couple of weeks/months once again if the ceiling isn´t raised once more.

 

Now I don´t want to sound too pessimistic here, but the aftermath of 2008 is yet to be dealt with in real terms. Printing the stock market to Dow 20.000 does not mean the US economy is healthy at all. Without zero or negative interest rates, the overall debt and interest rate burden on the government as well as private households and corporations would be way too big.

 

Under the coming Trump administration, fiscal stimulus combined with rising interest rates will not only increase the debt problem further but will also expose all of the misallocation of capital investments mades during the past 8 years.

 

The weakest dominos will default the quickest (subprime auto loans etc.).

IMO, Putin's main goal would be to break NATO more than the EU. The EU could break apart, but NATO needs to hold together.

Greece and Germany cannot share the same currency , its just a matter of time before everyone realizes it.

Why? Plenty of countries doing just fine even though their economies and gdp/capita are far lower than Germany's? Only argument in favor of them not sharing a currency is simply to devalue their own currency in order to reduce the debt burden. But is that really the right thing to do? No one forced their politicians to borrow money to shower voters with freebies in order to get elected.... They loved spending it, but they hate giving it back. A lot of their debt has already been written off, how much more is necessary to satisfy everyone? Their economy was booming back in the 2000s, the common currency was good then, why isn't it now? On the contrary I think it might actually hurt them more, no one's going to lend Greece money when their currency is going down the drain, and interest rates would be unbearable. Their cretinous populist politicians are even worse than the irresponsible ones before them. They got a good deal, 100 billion of debt was written off, they even refused another deal because they thought more debt should be written off, and the proceeded to blame all their problems on the Germans. How is that fair? I wonder if they leave the Euro how many of you will be standing in line to lend Greece money in their brand new shiny currency, because everyone realized that Greece and Germany can not share a currency so they 'fixed' the problem. Hmm... No one likes a deadbeat.

IMO, Putin's main goal would be to break NATO more than the EU. The EU could break apart, but NATO needs to hold together.

 

 

Why? Plenty of countries doing just fine even though their economies and gdp/capita are far lower than Germany's? Only argument in favor of them not sharing a currency is simply to devalue their own currency in order to reduce the debt burden. But is that really the right thing to do? No one forced their politicians to borrow money to shower voters with freebies in order to get elected.... They loved spending it, but they hate giving it back. A lot of their debt has already been written off, how much more is necessary to satisfy everyone? Their economy was booming back in the 2000s, the common currency was good then, why isn't it now? On the contrary I think it might actually hurt them more, no one's going to lend Greece money when their currency is going down the drain, and interest rates would be unbearable. Their cretinous populist politicians are even worse than the irresponsible ones before them. They got a good deal, 100 billion of debt was written off, they even refused another deal because they thought more debt should be written off, and the proceeded to blame all their problems on the Germans. How is that fair? I wonder if they leave the Euro how many of you will be standing in line to lend Greece money in their brand new shiny currency, because everyone realized that Greece and Germany can not share a currency so they 'fixed' the problem. Hmm... No one likes a deadbeat.

 

I think you misread our intent...Greece is the excess fat that needs to be cut off and left to it's own fate. In this scenario Germany is actually the good guy that needs to drop the dead weight. Greece should be booted from the EU and forced to face the mess they created for themselves, and stop putting the lending strain on Germany.

 

 

 

I think you misread our intent...Greece is the excess fat that needs to be cut off and left to it's own fate. In this scenario Germany is actually the good guy that needs to drop the dead weight. Greece should be booted from the EU and forced to face the mess they created for themselves, and stop putting the lending strain on Germany.

 

Great idea... create another failed state (yes we know it sucks) on the border of Europe. "Fire" Greece from the EU and the EU loses any control. Kansas hasn't been pulling it's weight recently either should we cut that fat? Rounding error, irrelevant in both cases. Should we have a quarterly approach to international politics or the state of the union?

 

I don't know how many of you have been to Russia, it is an absolute shit hole and as Ameer stated, they can't catch up. The Chinese will. A dissolution of NATO or the EU will only help them (and others).

 

Trump's negative comments regarding NATO and the EU, really disturb me. Why are all his foreign policy statements playing directly into Russia's crotch? It's got a Manchurian Candidate feel to it.

This is my big fear. A man with such an impulse control problem and fragile ego like trump becoming POTUS. Putin could very well have something on him.

 

To have POTUS dancing to his pipe would be an absolute homerun for Putin.

 

I'm afraid that people are so desperate to get rid of Obama that they don't notice the danger that Putin represents.

 

I really hope we aren't about to make Russia great again!

Great idea... create another failed state (yes we know it sucks) on the border of Europe. "Fire" Greece from the EU and the EU loses any control. Kansas hasn't been pulling it's weight recently either should we cut that fat? Rounding error, irrelevant in both cases. Should we have a quarterly approach to international politics or the state of the union?

 

I don't know how many of you have been to Russia, it is an absolute shit hole and as Ameer stated, they can't catch up. The Chinese will. A dissolution of NATO or the EU will only help them (and others).

 

Trump's negative comments regarding NATO and the EU, really disturb me. Why are all his foreign policy statements playing directly into Russia's crotch? It's got a Manchurian Candidate feel to it.

 

I'm not proposing a full dissolution of the EU (though it looks to me like it's been headed that way on it's own accord over the last 5 years) but let's face facts: Greece is a failed state and the drain it's creating is having sever effects on everyone else, that's partially why Britain said, "yeah we're out." Comparing the EU to the republic of the US is apples and oranges.

 

As far as Trump's statements about the EU and NATO go, he's not saying anything new...he's just saying these things more recently. Both have very big outstanding issues that need some addressing.

 

This is my big fear. A man with such an impulse control problem and fragile ego like trump becoming POTUS. Putin could very well have something on him.

 

To have POTUS dancing to his pipe would be an absolute homerun for Putin.

 

I'm afraid that people are so desperate to get rid of Obama that they don't notice the danger that Putin represents.

 

I really hope we aren't about to make Russia great again!

 

If Putin had something on him then the Clinton's and DNC certainly would and would have fully exploited it by now.

 

My thought is that Putin and Trump are very similar personalities, and that they'll actually find the mutual ground...they're both tough deal makers but know how to make the right deal that benefits both sides of it. Like Putin, Trump can get things done, be politically correct or not.

 

The fear of uncertainty right now I'd argue is a good thing...it's forcing everyone to be more cautious. Read the Art of War. When you're unpredictable your enemies are off balance and don't know how to best you.

Unicorn alert - delusional Pro Russian Republicans been sighted AGAIN.

 

Not having grown up in the US, I won't carry water for either party and I think they are both full of shit. This isn't RISK, there are no zero sum games. More of you should take a global rather than a purely partisan local view. This country is full of Myopians on both sides where "winning" is more important than getting it right. Off to Speakers' Corner in the morning to piss in the wind..

Unicorn alert - delusional Pro Russian Republicans been sighted AGAIN.

 

Not having grown up in the US, I won't carry water for either party and I think they are both full of shit. This isn't RISK, there are no zero sum games. More of you should take a global rather than a purely partisan local view. This country is full of Myopians on both sides where "winning" is more important than getting it right. Off to Speakers' Corner in the morning to piss in the wind..

 

 

1. ALL political parties everywhere are full of shit. Find me one that isn't and I'll tell you to take a closer look. It's part of the game.

 

2. I'd say most of us have a global view...the difference is we view things as we're #1 in the global community. Sorry, everyone isn't on an equal playing field and when you're in the positional of global super power everything you do has an effect, which is why you have to think about your steps first and foremost. It might not be popular, it might not be politically correct or globalist, but then again, being those things isn't what got us to be in the position we're in today.

 

3. Us "Myopians" feel that we'll be getting it right by winning. As will every Myopian in every place ever.

 

4. I'm not pro-russia (or even a republican, for that matter), but I think I'm one of the few who sees and understands the benefits of having a great rival/enemy. The marvels we take for granted today spawned from an era when two super powers went head to head. Once one of them fell, the victor in a sense lost it's way...but that's too long a tale to post.

 

5. I am now really intrigued..I'd love to meet up and has this whole thing out over a beverage because I think there's a lot that's been lost between posts. Going back to #3 at the core we want to get to the same destination, we're just radically opposed as to the best route to take to get there. It's always interesting to see what I view as great positive strides as absolute horror signs by others, and vice versa.

 

 

 

I think you misread our intent...Greece is the excess fat that needs to be cut off and left to it's own fate. In this scenario Germany is actually the good guy that needs to drop the dead weight. Greece should be booted from the EU and forced to face the mess they created for themselves, and stop putting the lending strain on Germany.

The issues are a lot more complex than that with Greece. Greeks might not be pulling their weight economically for now, but they do punch above their weight in other areas. For example as tiny as Greece is, it has one of the largest and best equipped navies in the Mediterranean, it also is a very big contributor to border security. Despite their woes, Greece is the second biggest contributor to NATO after the US in terms of GDP spent, and it is also bearing the brunt of the refugee influx. Greece isn't a lost cause, things can be fixed, but no complex problem can be fixed easily, it takes time. The game is played long term, you can't just "cut the excess fat" the moment you run into some trouble. The EU isn't an opportunistic spur of the moment kind of thing. It is crucial for European security, economic development and so on.

 

Also the talk of the dissolution of the EU severely underestimates the political will behind it, despite the Brits changing course, the EU is pretty popular on the continent, even more so after the Brexit vote. Sure there are detractors, and opinions will vary but the consensus is that despite its shortcomings it is better with it than without it. Its shortcomings can be addressed and there's a new push for reform after Brexit.

 

Even the UK has benefited loads from the EU, it even helped pacify Northern Ireland after the bloody conflict with the UK.

 

Trump has positioned the EU as an adversary, he says it was set up as an opponent to the US, he thinks of the EU as a rival and not a partner. That's just wrong on so many levels, that's why I was shocked when I saw him directly undermine the EU and bash Germany with his comments. It was set up to bring peace to Europe once and for all, it was set up so that Americans don't have to intervene again in another major war, and it was supported and encouraged by the US and for the most part it has achieved its goals. He's saying this stuff while making overtures to Russia. I think he's a bit confused about who really are his friends and allies. And to say all this and how the EU won't work because of the refugee crisis which his moronic predecessor had a big hand in provoking with his irresponsible interventionism. This isn't "ballsy" or saying it how it is, it's impudence.

 

And I actually support his stance on NATO somewhat, I think Euro countries should pick up the slack and spend not the minimum 2% of GDP (many don't even spend that) but even increase that to 2.5-3% of GDP. The Cold War is over, European nations have recovered after the losses of WW2, there are no excuses to rely on the US for security anymore, and considering the current state of affairs this is a big opportunity to become more assertive and take more responsibility for defense. I think it's irresponsible of us to rely on the US for much longer, aside from it being unfair to the US. And of course a shift in defense policy will have to come at the expense of American influence on the continent, though such a shift, might in fact turn this partnership into a rivalry, which is why NATO has to be supported and committed to by all the sides involved.

ameer I have a LOT of respect for you, I love your posts keep them coming

 

 

The issues are a lot more complex than that with Greece. Greeks might not be pulling their weight economically for now, but they do punch above their weight in other areas. For example as tiny as Greece is, it has one of the largest and best equipped navies in the Mediterranean, it also is a very big contributor to border security. Despite their woes, Greece is the second biggest contributor to NATO after the US in terms of GDP spent, and it is also bearing the brunt of the refugee influx. Greece isn't a lost cause, things can be fixed, but no complex problem can be fixed easily, it takes time. The game is played long term, you can't just "cut the excess fat" the moment you run into some trouble. The EU isn't an opportunistic spur of the moment kind of thing. It is crucial for European security, economic development and so on.

 

Also the talk of the dissolution of the EU severely underestimates the political will behind it, despite the Brits changing course, the EU is pretty popular on the continent, even more so after the Brexit vote. Sure there are detractors, and opinions will vary but the consensus is that despite its shortcomings it is better with it than without it. Its shortcomings can be addressed and there's a new push for reform after Brexit.

 

Even the UK has benefited loads from the EU, it even helped pacify Northern Ireland after the bloody conflict with the UK.

 

Trump has positioned the EU as an adversary, he says it was set up as an opponent to the US, he thinks of the EU as a rival and not a partner. That's just wrong on so many levels, that's why I was shocked when I saw him directly undermine the EU and bash Germany with his comments. It was set up to bring peace to Europe once and for all, it was set up so that Americans don't have to intervene again in another major war, and it was supported and encouraged by the US and for the most part it has achieved its goals. He's saying this stuff while making overtures to Russia. I think he's a bit confused about who really are his friends and allies. And to say all this and how the EU won't work because of the refugee crisis which his moronic predecessor had a big hand in provoking with his irresponsible interventionism. This isn't "ballsy" or saying it how it is, it's impudence.

 

And I actually support his stance on NATO somewhat, I think Euro countries should pick up the slack and spend not the minimum 2% of GDP (many don't even spend that) but even increase that to 2.5-3% of GDP. The Cold War is over, European nations have recovered after the losses of WW2, there are no excuses to rely on the US for security anymore, and considering the current state of affairs this is a big opportunity to become more assertive and take more responsibility for defense. I think it's irresponsible of us to rely on the US for much longer, aside from it being unfair to the US. And of course a shift in defense policy will have to come at the expense of American influence on the continent, though such a shift, might in fact turn this partnership into a rivalry, which is why NATO has to be supported and committed to by all the sides involved.

 

A solid point of view, and yes I do think NATO is important, but it has some issues that need to be addressed. As far as Greece goes, I stand by my statement above...yes complex situations do require complex and long term solutions...

 

...That being said just how "long term" is Europe waiting for Greece to get it together? From an outsider's perspective, Greece has had a long history of instability and has been notoriously problematic for itself and it's neighbors. From the 1950s through the 1980's Greece has had civil wars, political overthrows, tensions with neighboring countries and severely stalled development. In the 80s when they joined the EU, things seemed to progress better but the old habits where still around, that resurfaced in the late 90's and got more severe in the early 2000's. flash forward to where it is present day ad it's not a surprise it's in it's current situation. As an outsider looking at the risk-analysis of how Greece has performed over the last 60+ years, the case for it is not a good one. The EU did more for it than it did for the EU, and it presently is still hemorrhaging economically and socially. If the finger has gangrene you have to cut it off to save the hand, other wise you need to cut of the hand to save the arm, and if you still don't, death is imminent. From what I've seen historically and presently, Greece has been far more trouble than productive and in the red for 45 out of the last 60 years. As an outsider, it's hard to see the clear cut case to keep it in the EU. And again, I'm not actively rooting for the dissolution of the EU. I just think based on what I've seen the last 15 years I think the EU is coming apart at the seams and is headed in that direction. I think Britain also saw this, and jumped ship early because long term being out of the EU works better for their interests. I think the EU works well for a lot of countries but works negatively for others, and the ones that it isn't working for are starting to do their own risk analysis...

 

My 2 cents.

A solid point of view, and yes I do think NATO is important, but it has some issues that need to be addressed. As far as Greece goes, I stand by my statement above...yes complex situations do require complex and long term solutions...

 

...That being said just how "long term" is Europe waiting for Greece to get it together? From an outsider's perspective, Greece has had a long history of instability and has been notoriously problematic for itself and it's neighbors. From the 1950s through the 1980's Greece has had civil wars, political overthrows, tensions with neighboring countries and severely stalled development. In the 80s when they joined the EU, things seemed to progress better but the old habits where still around, that resurfaced in the late 90's and got more severe in the early 2000's. flash forward to where it is present day ad it's not a surprise it's in it's current situation. As an outsider looking at the risk-analysis of how Greece has performed over the last 60+ years, the case for it is not a good one. The EU did more for it than it did for the EU, and it presently is still hemorrhaging economically and socially. If the finger has gangrene you have to cut it off to save the hand, other wise you need to cut of the hand to save the arm, and if you still don't, death is imminent. From what I've seen historically and presently, Greece has been far more trouble than productive and in the red for 45 out of the last 60 years. As an outsider, it's hard to see the clear cut case to keep it in the EU. And again, I'm not actively rooting for the dissolution of the EU. I just think based on what I've seen the last 15 years I think the EU is coming apart at the seams and is headed in that direction. I think Britain also saw this, and jumped ship early because long term being out of the EU works better for their interests. I think the EU works well for a lot of countries but works negatively for others, and the ones that it isn't working for are starting to do their own risk analysis...

 

My 2 cents.

 

What is long term to you? Long term in business is 10-20 years perhaps? When statehood is involved long term is a longer time frame than that. Greece's problems stem from the huge burden of their debt, their economy has suffered in the past years but in 2008, which was their best year they were actually dead on the EU average for GDP/capita. Another thing, remember I said they have one of the largest and best equipped navies in the Med? Guess where they bought all that stuff from? Most of it comes from Germany and Netherlands, paid for with borrowed German and Dutch cash, sure they spent some of it on showering voters with freebies but not only that. Much of those hundreds of billions went straight back into the German economy.

 

That same cutting edge navy patrols the Med and deals with the brunt of the refugee crisis which has been weighing them down even further, they have not gotten the support they rightly deserve from the rest of the EU. They have a tax dodging problem, and people dodge taxes because they are way too high, and the IMF and other lenders have imposed crippling conditions on them. My opinion of the IMF is appaling, my country kicked them out long time ago because they were vehemently opposed to us lowering taxes and generally relaxing the fiscal burden. Guess what? After we kicked them out, we slashed taxes the economy boomed, in 2009 we borrowed money from them again (it wasn't really needed but we did it anyway) to keep the country afloat, but this time on our terms. Greece did not have such leverage. Their high taxes are causing businesses to relocate, and professionals to emigrate. There is nothing inherently wrong with Greece, just policy. The conditions imposed on them have made people vote for a populist idiotic party which is far right on social issues and far left on economic policy. They've become pretty unpopular but it takes some time for a country which was thrown off the gravy train so suddenly to find their footing. No country can get rich overnight, save for perhaps finding a massive oil deposit somewhere.

 

After WW2 Greece was one of the poorest countries in Europe, it slowly became a middle income country, after they got into the EU they slowly became a high income country. How does that not count as progress over the past 60 years? The military juntas that ruled Greece in the 70s did them no favors in terms of economic development but they were needed and supported by the West, the US included, to counter communism which had an alarmingly high following in Greece. There are still outlawed extreme left organizations that have even planted bombs from time to time. They are now back to being a middle to high income country. It's a step back but they will rebound, I'm sure of that. Greeks are smart folks they will figure it out eventually.

 

After that you need to understand eastern culture, Americans have the Protestant work ethic instilled in them and think everyone should be the same, but unfortunately it's not the case, in Greece people work to live not live to work, and it's also a rather resource poor country, the only abundant resource they have is sunshine. It's just the way it is. Greece will never be as rich as America or Germany, but it should do fine and fit neatly into the first world.

 

And I don't mean to sound condescending or anything but you guys over there are really disconnected from what goes on over here, (and its pretty much the same for us) and it's not even your fault. In a country as large as America it is expected and normal for its population to be American centric, sure you get world news and stuff, but there's so much going on over there it would be next to impossible to follow everything unless you do this for a living or are extremely eager to learn or understand what goes on over here. This results in rather superficial coverage of issues in other parts of the world. No one's going to watch the news for 5 hours daily to stay informed with what goes on everywhere.

 

There is also a trend among right wing political pundits to be anti EU and criticize it and talk about how 'undemocratic' it is which is really intellectually false. I am conservative myself and honestly truly despise socialists in general, but don't believe everything you read and inform yourself, don't take everything for granted just because its written on you favourite political blog. Anyone saying the EU is undemocratic only needs to read about how it functions and what it can do, and will see its a really tall order to call it undemocratic. It has its flaws but nothing is really perfect is it?

 

There is not one country in the EU that has not had a net benefit from belonging. No country can say that they were fucked over by the EU and that it hasn't worked for them. It has, for everyone, the UK included. The reasons for the UK leaving are different. They were concerned about immigration from the EU. Apparently that was their main gripe, because they had the freedom to restrict immigration from outside the EU but it seems people from the EU bothered them the most, not the bomb planting ones from outside the EU.

 

The EU even works for America. American companies that operate in one country can operate everywhere else freely. Ford, GM, build cars in Germany, Belgium, UK and sell them all over freely, and plenty more industries and American companies do business inside the EU. Trump just said he sees plenty of Mercedeses in Manhattan but not that many Chevys in Berlin, this to him means trade between the EU and the US is a one way street. That's false and dishonest. Ford is a major manufacturer that sells a lot of cars, they have a big market share, and build exceptional products in their respective price ranges and segments, so is GM through their European brands like Opel or Vauxhall. BMW and MB have some of their largest production facilities in the USA. In fact the USA is second only to Germany in terms of MB and BMW production. We even import the SUVs from the US because both MB and BMW build their SUVs exclusively in the USA. The X5 I just leased is built in Spartanburg SC.

 

Let me give you another example. Ireland. When Ireland joined in the 70s they were the poorest country in the EU, today it is one of the richest most successful countries in the EU. It has a GDP/capita higher than the UK, Germany or France. It is an economic tiger with some of the lowest taxes in the EU and they too had debt issues. They've wanted to join since the 60s but weren't allowed to. Their economy was undeveloped mostly focused on agriculture and was plagued by mass unemployment and as recently as 80s 1/3 of their population lived below the poverty line. They had 7.8% economic growth in 2015, just a few years before they were hit hard by the debt crisis and everyone was worried. We should have kicked them out by that reasoning... no? Looking at the big picture they should have been a disaster.

What is long term to you? Long term in business is 10-20 years perhaps? When statehood is involved long term is a longer time frame than that. Greece's problems stem from the huge burden of their debt, their economy has suffered in the past years but in 2008, which was their best year they were actually dead on the EU average for GDP/capita. Another thing, remember I said they have one of the largest and best equipped navies in the Med? Guess where they bought all that stuff from? Most of it comes from Germany and Netherlands, paid for with borrowed German and Dutch cash, sure they spent some of it on showering voters with freebies but not only that. Much of those hundreds of billions went straight back into the German economy.

 

That same cutting edge navy patrols the Med and deals with the brunt of the refugee crisis which has been weighing them down even further, they have not gotten the support they rightly deserve from the rest of the EU. They have a tax dodging problem, and people dodge taxes because they are way too high, and the IMF and other lenders have imposed crippling conditions on them. My opinion of the IMF is appaling, my country kicked them out long time ago because they were vehemently opposed to us lowering taxes and generally relaxing the fiscal burden. Guess what? After we kicked them out, we slashed taxes the economy boomed, in 2009 we borrowed money from them again (it wasn't really needed but we did it anyway) to keep the country afloat, but this time on our terms. Greece did not have such leverage. Their high taxes are causing businesses to relocate, and professionals to emigrate. There is nothing inherently wrong with Greece, just policy. The conditions imposed on them have made people vote for a populist idiotic party which is far right on social issues and far left on economic policy. They've become pretty unpopular but it takes some time for a country which was thrown off the gravy train so suddenly to find their footing. No country can get rich overnight, save for perhaps finding a massive oil deposit somewhere.

 

After WW2 Greece was one of the poorest countries in Europe, it slowly became a middle income country, after they got into the EU they slowly became a high income country. How does that not count as progress over the past 60 years? The military juntas that ruled Greece in the 70s did them no favors in terms of economic development but they were needed and supported by the West, the US included, to counter communism which had an alarmingly high following in Greece. There are still outlawed extreme left organizations that have even planted bombs from time to time. They are now back to being a middle to high income country. It's a step back but they will rebound, I'm sure of that. Greeks are smart folks they will figure it out eventually.

 

After that you need to understand eastern culture, Americans have the Protestant work ethic instilled in them and think everyone should be the same, but unfortunately it's not the case, in Greece people work to live not live to work, and it's also a rather resource poor country, the only abundant resource they have is sunshine. It's just the way it is. Greece will never be as rich as America or Germany, but it should do fine and fit neatly into the first world.

 

And I don't mean to sound condescending or anything but you guys over there are really disconnected from what goes on over here, (and its pretty much the same for us) and it's not even your fault. In a country as large as America it is expected and normal for its population to be American centric, sure you get world news and stuff, but there's so much going on over there it would be next to impossible to follow everything unless you do this for a living or are extremely eager to learn or understand what goes on over here. This results in rather superficial coverage of issues in other parts of the world. No one's going to watch the news for 5 hours daily to stay informed with what goes on everywhere.

 

There is also a trend among right wing political pundits to be anti EU and criticize it and talk about how 'undemocratic' it is which is really intellectually false. I am conservative myself and honestly truly despise socialists in general, but don't believe everything you read and inform yourself, don't take everything for granted just because its written on you favourite political blog. Anyone saying the EU is undemocratic only needs to read about how it functions and what it can do, and will see its a really tall order to call it undemocratic. It has its flaws but nothing is really perfect is it?

 

There is not one country in the EU that has not had a net benefit from belonging. No country can say that they were fucked over by the EU and that it hasn't worked for them. It has, for everyone, the UK included. The reasons for the UK leaving are different. They were concerned about immigration from the EU. Apparently that was their main gripe, because they had the freedom to restrict immigration from outside the EU but it seems people from the EU bothered them the most, not the bomb planting ones from outside the EU.

 

The EU even works for America. American companies that operate in one country can operate everywhere else freely. Ford, GM, build cars in Germany, Belgium, UK and sell them all over freely, and plenty more industries and American companies do business inside the EU. Trump just said he sees plenty of Mercedeses in Manhattan but not that many Chevys in Berlin, this to him means trade between the EU and the US is a one way street. That's false and dishonest. Ford is a major manufacturer that sells a lot of cars, they have a big market share, and build exceptional products in their respective price ranges and segments, so is GM through their European brands like Opel or Vauxhall. BMW and MB have some of their largest production facilities in the USA. In fact the USA is second only to Germany in terms of MB and BMW production. We even import the SUVs from the US because both MB and BMW build their SUVs exclusively in the USA. The X5 I just leased is built in Spartanburg SC.

 

Let me give you another example. Ireland. When Ireland joined in the 70s they were the poorest country in the EU, today it is one of the richest most successful countries in the EU. It has a GDP/capita higher than the UK, Germany or France. It is an economic tiger with some of the lowest taxes in the EU and they too had debt issues. They've wanted to join since the 60s but weren't allowed to. Their economy was undeveloped mostly focused on agriculture and was plagued by mass unemployment and as recently as 80s 1/3 of their population lived below the poverty line. They had 7.8% economic growth in 2015, just a few years before they were hit hard by the debt crisis and everyone was worried. We should have kicked them out by that reasoning... no? Looking at the big picture they should have been a disaster.

 

Too long, did not read... j/k

 

A great post and very insightful. I am enjoying how we can disagree but have an in depth and productive conversation. So far you have raised a lot of valid points about the EU and the benefits of it, which I agree with and am not debating. As for manufacturing and trade I think the EU has done a lot of productive things. And yes, no one is going to sit through 5 hours of world news to know everything that is happening everywhere...the world is a big place and for 95% of us what we have going on in our own countries has 99% of the impact of our day to day lives.

 

That being said Ireland is certainly a good example and though similar in appearance to Greece, it is not Greece. What worked for Ireland may not work for Greece, especially with the historical and cultural differences at play. You have to treat countries as a case-by-case scenario...Ireland has a different culture, geography, political make up and relationship with the EU than Greece does. Yes Greece will not be as rich as the US or Germany in the modern area (but let's not forget they once where a top world power) but to me half a century is a long period of time. If we look at what's happened after WWII and see who's made strides and who's fallen behind, Greece has been on the latter for 45 out of 60 years. I think you've made a great case for the EU but I am not convinced that the case for Greece is as solid. My fear with Greece is that they won't recover and will keep borrowing until the point where Germany gets fed up and cuts the line of credit. When that happens some social and political tensions could snap, and Greece might implode.

 

As far as the EU not working for some countries, my take on it is something like this metaphor: The EU is a group dinner, and several countries are just having a simple salad and a glass of wine for dinner. Several other countries are ordering appetizers, full bottles of wine, steak entrees, shots and desserts. All is good and fine until the bill comes. The ones that ordered the hefty part of the bill are saying that everyone should just toss in their card the entire group dinner will split it evenly. This doesn't sit well with several members of the dinner, and one member actually gets up, pays their portion at the front and leaves. I'm sure you can guess who's who in that scenario, but my point is it all comes down to economics. Several countries, like Greece and Austria have been borrowing heavily and the ROI is not paying high dividends just yet, which creates tension. I have no dog in the fight, but if I was a betting man I'd say another big exit from the EU is coming within the next 3 years. I could be wrong, but that's my gut feeling.

 

As stated before I'm not rooting for the collapse of the EU or the demise of Greece, this is what I think based on what I've seen and researched over the years.

 

And I actually support his stance on NATO somewhat, I think Euro countries should pick up the slack and spend not the minimum 2% of GDP (many don't even spend that) but even increase that to 2.5-3% of GDP. The Cold War is over, European nations have recovered after the losses of WW2, there are no excuses to rely on the US for security anymore, and considering the current state of affairs this is a big opportunity to become more assertive and take more responsibility for defense. I think it's irresponsible of us to rely on the US for much longer, aside from it being unfair to the US. And of course a shift in defense policy will have to come at the expense of American influence on the continent, though such a shift, might in fact turn this partnership into a rivalry, which is why NATO has to be supported and committed to by all the sides involved.

 

The problem with demanding the European nations step up their defense spending is a few-fold IMO:

 

1) Most do not have the money to do so without making significant social welfare state cuts, which will not be politically viable

 

2) Without leadership on the part of the U.S., you end up with a bunch of smaller countries all trying to defend the continent, which means that nothing may get done, or get done quickly enough. Someone has to assume command (Germany?)

 

3) It isn't enough for the EU nations to step up their individual defense spending; rather, they need to do it as a group, so as to have the same economies of scale that the United States has when it comes to purchasing vehicles, equipment, spare parts, etc...if it's instead a bunch of smaller individual militaries, those economies of scale are going to lack

 

4) Prior attempts to set up European rapid-reaction forces have not worked from what I understand

 

5) Russia is IMO far less likely to try invading any part of Europe if there is a U.S. presence. If they invade and they're at war with the European nations, their attitude may be, "Big Deal," but if they invade and have to kill U.S. soldiers in the process, it's a wholly different ballgame. The Soviet Union used to push for the U.S. to withdraw from Western Europe for this reason. The U.S. presence also is what helped check any possibility of a Soviet invasion. The same is true for the U.S. presence in South Korea.

 

6) If the Europeans are responsible for defending their own continent from Russia and war happens, it will probably cause a repeat of what happened in World Wars I and II where the U.S. got pulled in anyhow.

 

My opinion of the IMF is appaling, my country kicked them out long time ago because they were vehemently opposed to us lowering taxes and generally relaxing the fiscal burden. Guess what? After we kicked them out, we slashed taxes the economy boomed, in 2009 we borrowed money from them again (it wasn't really needed but we did it anyway) to keep the country afloat, but this time on our terms. Greece did not have such leverage. Their high taxes are causing businesses to relocate, and professionals to emigrate. There is nothing inherently wrong with Greece, just policy.

 

AHA!! So that is the real reason you defend Greece so much, you are Greek! (j/k)

 

The EU even works for America. American companies that operate in one country can operate everywhere else freely. Ford, GM, build cars in Germany, Belgium, UK and sell them all over freely, and plenty more industries and American companies do business inside the EU. Trump just said he sees plenty of Mercedeses in Manhattan but not that many Chevys in Berlin, this to him means trade between the EU and the US is a one way street. That's false and dishonest. Ford is a major manufacturer that sells a lot of cars, they have a big market share, and build exceptional products in their respective price ranges and segments, so is GM through their European brands like Opel or Vauxhall. BMW and MB have some of their largest production facilities in the USA. In fact the USA is second only to Germany in terms of MB and BMW production. We even import the SUVs from the US because both MB and BMW build their SUVs exclusively in the USA. The X5 I just leased is built in Spartanburg SC.

 

Trump IMO has a lot of misunderstanding about trade IMO, because he constantly talks about a trade deficit as if it is a bad thing. A trade deficit is not like a budget deficit. We ran a very small trade deficit and a trade surplus during the Great Depression for example. I do like how Trump drives the Left nuts and a lot of his policy ideas, but regarding that aspect of trade, he is wrong. I DO like how he points out that free trade isn't proper free trade if the other side cheats by stealing intellectual property and having tariffs and so forth.

 

Also didn't know that Opel and Vauxhall are GM brands.