Market Crash

This has been the quietest market crash in 20 years.... Weve dumped 2000 points with the media not saying shit.

This has been the quietest market crash in 20 years.... Weve dumped 2000 points with the media not saying shit.

 

$1000 since I opened the topic.. And I believe we have bounced off this point before.

Going to get me an aircooled Porsche turbo.

Going to get me an aircooled Porsche turbo.

Going to get me an aircooled Porsche turbo.

 

Car prices balloon haven't popped yet. If housing and cars do I am sitting in wait ready to attack!

TSLA taking a beating. Down to 150 from 240 at the start of the year. Earnings on Wednesday

I will likely list my house up for sale this week. I have a strong gut feeling the RE bubble will pop again in South FL within the next 6 months-a year if things continue along the same path with the USD.

 

Reasons:

*Condos are being overbuilt again (although builders are requiring larger cash deposits prior to starting construction).

*Canadian Dollar is in the $hitter-snowbirds are a big part of the vacation home/condo

*All South American currency is weak vs. dollar

*European markets are down.

*Hotels are seeing decrease in demand locally which usually foreshadows overall RE decline.

 

 

If I sell, I will give it another 6 months to a year before I buy again and hold my equity until I can manage a good return on my next home purchase.

I will likely list my house up for sale this week. I have a strong gut feeling the RE bubble will pop again in South FL within the next 6 months-a year if things continue along the same path with the USD.

 

Reasons:

*Condos are being overbuilt again (although builders are requiring larger cash deposits prior to starting construction).

*Canadian Dollar is in the $hitter-snowbirds are a big part of the vacation home/condo

*All South American currency is weak vs. dollar

*European markets are down.

*Hotels are seeing decrease in demand locally which usually foreshadows overall RE decline.

 

 

If I sell, I will give it another 6 months to a year before I buy again and hold my equity until I can manage a good return on my next home purchase.

 

I had the same concerns towards the end of 2015 and sold my condo in November and moved out to CO. I don't love being a renter again, but tax free profits in my pocket are great and I'll have the money ready on the sidelines for the next dip in the housing market. I don't expect the SoFL market to pop anything like last time, but I do think we're going to see units sit on the market much longer and sellers have to lower the expectations to move their properties.

I had the same concerns towards the end of 2015 and sold my condo in November and moved out to CO. I don't love being a renter again, but tax free profits in my pocket are great and I'll have the money ready on the sidelines for the next dip in the housing market. I don't expect the SoFL market to pop anything like last time, but I do think we're going to see units sit on the market much longer and sellers have to lower the expectations to move their properties.

 

 

I dont think it will be as bad either, but they say when your janitor starts picking up 4-5 "investment" properties, pull your money out. I am starting to see that again as well.

 

I also know quite a few people (myself included) who are simply listing to see if it can sell for a specified price, so there is alot of inventory out there right now in Single Family RE. If my place sells, great, I will rent another place at stupid high rent prices for 6 months to a year hoarding cash. If it doesnt sell, all good-just keep it.

Pockmark I have no idea how the RE market is there but it seems like a huge gamble to me with your family home, if you have equity in your home can you extract it via a loan and utilize the funds to buy something if the market crashes as you are speculating? If your speculations are incorrect you can at least return the loan without causing huge disruptions to your life and possibly losing on the next purchase or being forced to purchase in a lower bracket.

 

 

I'm not really sure what you guys on the other side of the pond are talking about, when everyone over here knows RE can only go up....

 

Interesting reading....

 

I work in the American auto industry, and with gas prices down... we cannot build enough trucks, so sales are great. But the pounding in 2007 to 2009 was terrible... hope it does not repeat.

Well, IMO supply vs demand on everything.. Certain pieces may bring the money, but I think the Lambo prices got over inflated. The second my diablo sold for $175k with 50k miles and a repaint the diablo market changed... Everyone acted like a diablo with 10k miles now is worth $300k...

 

I think that is ridiculous.. Did everyone forget the extensive rebuild my car went through.. Is a diablo worth $300k.. In time, but are they selling for that right now.. 1 or 2 may have, but I think prices are going to adjust. (certain models should bring the $... but a 94vt... still a $100k car to me)

 

The countach deserves it's price point, but unless it is a 100% refresh, I think most of them arn't selling in the $300k's anymore. (except for certain models of course. lp400, periscopa, and down draft cars can all bring good $ anytime.)

 

Spring time is usually when these cars start to sell. If they start getting picked off the market at these price points, then we can be pretty sure the values won't go back down. If they don't get picked off, prices will either adjust or dealers will hold.

 

 

I dont think your car had anything to do with the market on Diablos going up. You simply hit upon the right buyer who loved your car and new that buying one, and redoing it in that color would take alot more time, effort and ofcourse money..

 

Countach's arent selling in the 300's anymore? I know several, including dealers purchasing cars back for over $300k in recent weeks.The fact remains the only Countach you are getting for $300k, is either an Anniversary, or a beat QV, that needs serious money to get back in shape. Diablos arent selling? Again, a 94 VT may not be a 300k car, but there are plenty of Diablos that have been selling for over 300k, including SE's, SV's, Roadsters and 6.0's . I know of a couple of extremely nice 91's that have sold for over 200k as well.

Japanese Nikkei 225 index lost in excess of 900 points, closing the session at 16,085.44.

The 5.4% decline is the largest since June 13, 2013, and left the index sitting precariously above the 16-month low of 16,017.26 struck on January 21.

 

Dow futures down 170. Its going lower and lower and lower.

By the time the election rolls around there will be blood in the street.

Trying to remember the study I read on the decay of 3x ETFs. IIRC it was better not to buy FAZ, for example, but to short FAS as both decayed over time. I wonder if we have a lot of bears here on the board, it's always interesting to hear thoughts on shorting as I've always thought it took balls.

I dont think your car had anything to do with the market on Diablos going up. You simply hit upon the right buyer who loved your car and new that buying one, and redoing it in that color would take alot more time, effort and ofcourse money..

 

Countach's arent selling in the 300's anymore? I know several, including dealers purchasing cars back for over $300k in recent weeks.The fact remains the only Countach you are getting for $300k, is either an Anniversary, or a beat QV, that needs serious money to get back in shape. Diablos arent selling? Again, a 94 VT may not be a 300k car, but there are plenty of Diablos that have been selling for over 300k, including SE's, SV's, Roadsters and 6.0's . I know of a couple of extremely nice 91's that have sold for over 200k as well.

 

There are specific models that are of course valuable. I think we will definitely see how the market shapes up in spring. I hope they all sell for top dollar and the market rolls on.

 

 

Trying to remember the study I read on the decay of 3x ETFs. IIRC it was better not to buy FAZ, for example, but to short FAS as both decayed over time. I wonder if we have a lot of bears here on the board, it's always interesting to hear thoughts on shorting as I've always thought it took balls.

 

I would think shorting definitely takes following a certain stock.. i have never shorted, but thought I was told if the stock goes up you just buy to close and you end up owning the stock at the higher price. Is that correct? Maybe what my friend said was he owns the stock of the stock he is shorting as well. Kind of a hedge.. Something like, he owns a stock he likes to own and when he feels it is too strong he shorts it..

 

I can't remember.

 

If anyone does short how do you play it?

 

I would think shorting definitely takes following a certain stock.. i have never shorted, but thought I was told if the stock goes up you just buy to close and you end up owning the stock at the higher price. Is that correct? Maybe what my friend said was he owns the stock of the stock he is shorting as well. Kind of a hedge.. Something like, he owns a stock he likes to own and when he feels it is too strong he shorts it..

 

I can't remember.

 

If anyone does short how do you play it?

 

 

When you short you essentially borrow the shares hoping the price goes down and then buy it back at the lower price to profit from the fall. So you have sold shares you don't own (borrowed) and bought back to pay the lender back.

 

Pretty much the reverse of owning a stock for which you hope the price goes up the minute you buy it and sell to lock in your profit.

I would think shorting definitely takes following a certain stock.. i have never shorted, but thought I was told if the stock goes up you just buy to close and you end up owning the stock at the higher price. Is that correct? Maybe what my friend said was he owns the stock of the stock he is shorting as well. Kind of a hedge.. Something like, he owns a stock he likes to own and when he feels it is too strong he shorts it..

 

I can't remember.

 

If anyone does short how do you play it?

 

My advice

 

 

Buy low

Sell high

I wonder how the world would be without this wide spread form of gambling. All these fluctuations driven by fear, impacted by the herd. I don't subscribe to it but it's kind of entertaining watching from the sidelines.

I wonder how the world would be without this wide spread form of gambling. All these fluctuations driven by fear, impacted by the herd. I don't subscribe to it but it's kind of entertaining watching from the sidelines.

 

The only real form of the stock market I have done is through my 401k, and it hasn't done much up or down.

The only real form of the stock market I have done is through my 401k, and it hasn't done much up or down.

 

As young as you are you need a more risky strategy IMO.

I wonder how the world would be without this wide spread form of gambling. All these fluctuations driven by fear, impacted by the herd. I don't subscribe to it but it's kind of entertaining watching from the sidelines.

 

 

Well a little jaded here, but imo on the retail side 90% of average people are gambling, 5% are insider trading...5% are good.

I wonder how the world would be without this wide spread form of gambling. All these fluctuations driven by fear, impacted by the herd. I don't subscribe to it but it's kind of entertaining watching from the sidelines.

 

take it from me.. stay as far away as you can from the stock market. some people make money.. at the end you lose it if you are a day trader.

 

1999 lost 100k or so

2004 lost 40k or so

2008 lost 60k or so

2011 lost 20k or so

15-2016 losing 50k

 

I short a stock it goes up. I buy a stock below book value it goes down.. lol. I almost feel like there is a monkey on the other side of the screen waiting for the deposit and takes it.

 

 

I recall something on CNBC where the money maker ( all the volume you see ) i.e GE stock does 15,000,000 volume a day, 88% of that volume is not real volume. to create a market...

 

One day i will learn , no easy money.

take it from me.. stay as far away as you can from the stock market. some people make money.. at the end you lose it if you are a day trader.

 

1999 lost 100k or so

2004 lost 40k or so

2008 lost 60k or so

2011 lost 20k or so

15-2016 losing 50k

 

I short a stock it goes up. I buy a stock below book value it goes down.. lol. I almost feel like there is a monkey on the other side of the screen waiting for the deposit and takes it.

 

 

I recall something on CNBC where the money maker ( all the volume you see ) i.e GE stock does 15,000,000 volume a day, 88% of that volume is not real volume. to create a market...

 

One day i will learn , no easy money.

 

 

Sounds like you would have been better off just buying an index fund like VOO

 

 

The forex market seems to be full of teenagers playing away their savings. Youtube in the last few years has no shortage of "investor gurus" all with their own special brand of strategy to "beat the market".

 

Here in my garaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaage