Market Crash

The DJIA still has a lifetime growth of what...6-7% every year when it averages out? If I am my pops and thinking about retiring in the next few years I am worried. Me? I've got cash lined up ready to go in. I have 30+ years to buy low and wait for it to rally. I'm not looking to make a killing though...just want to see some healthy growth year over year.

My opinion is that there are too many experts predicting a huge market crash for it to actually happen. Time will tell.

Seriously? I dont see a lot of experts saying there is a huge crash coming. Most I have seen said things are great keep pouring money in. But I dont watch a lot of main stream people either. I think we are in for a big down turn, But Im a no body. I have money in the market, but if I could get it out without penalty I would be all in, in silver.

Come to Texas!

 

Good returns? I am only interested in RE, but now our pesos is in the toilet LOL

Oddly, In the trucking industry fuel is cheaper then it has been for years, but freight is down, tonnage is down. Truck sales are down.. Which is strange because with lower fuel costs, operating costs just got cut basically in half. Which means they can run 2 trucks for the same cost as 1 was just 6 months ago..

 

And this is one of the indicators that say's thing are not right.

 

Why do you think expenses are cut in half? Why, because demand is half as much.

If you have half the demand globally you do not have a healthy economy.

 

I will beat my drum (right or wrong) and stand with my position we are headed for troubled times.

this sums it up lately for me...

 

this sums it up lately for me...

 

 

Honestly in writing this I think I am trying to give a little bit of a warning. I hope I am wrong and I really hope the trucking economy comes back up. Trucking is kind of the fuel for the fire. Everything and anything you see, buy, touch, eat, blah blah blah.. it's all been on a truck. Everything.. So when trucking slows down.....

 

 

And this is one of the indicators that say's thing are not right.

 

Why do you think expenses are cut in half? Why, because demand is half as much.

If you have half the demand globally you do not have a healthy economy.

 

I will beat my drum (right or wrong) and stand with my position we are headed for troubled times.

 

This is what I am thinking and why I created this topic. Quite honestly with all going on in the world I am shocked it isn't worse yet. I know I stated Market Crash, but in reality I am not that concerned about the stock market. More concerned about the overall economy. How are the next couple years going to shake out. We had a very strong run, probably too strong. I would have preferred a 2% year/year increase than the burst we had.. When we have those bursts up, it seems they must come down. It feels like now is the time.

 

 

 

Im glad I was just able to sell my house and get in to a better situation before anything happens. Hopefully the consensus on here is wrong though.

This is what I am thinking and why I created this topic. Quite honestly with all going on in the world I am shocked it isn't worse yet. I know I stated Market Crash, but in reality I am not that concerned about the stock market. More concerned about the overall economy. How are the next couple years going to shake out. We had a very strong run, probably too strong. I would have preferred a 2% year/year increase than the burst we had.. When we have those bursts up, it seems they must come down. It feels like now is the time.

 

Have you been down to SoCal recently (Inland empire area) and seen the logistics facilities they are erecting? Along the 10fwy from Redlands to Fontana there are multiple sites going up that are several million sq/ft each, all as available lease space. Someone is betting big, especially with land acquisition costs being quite high right now.

 

Commercial construction as a whole has been doing quite well, we didn't really see a slowdown through the last half of Q4 like we routinely expect, and it's carrying through into the new year very strong. It doesn't seem to just be existing projects closing out, but a lot of new ground breaking all over the US.

 

Hopefully it holds strong, or a lot of people could be left with nothing but their dick in their hand and some massive empty buildings.

Honestly in writing this I think I am trying to give a little bit of a warning. I hope I am wrong and I really hope the trucking economy comes back up. Trucking is kind of the fuel for the fire. Everything and anything you see, buy, touch, eat, blah blah blah.. it's all been on a truck. Everything.. So when trucking slows down.....

 

 

 

 

This is what I am thinking and why I created this topic. Quite honestly with all going on in the world I am shocked it isn't worse yet. I know I stated Market Crash, but in reality I am not that concerned about the stock market. More concerned about the overall economy. How are the next couple years going to shake out. We had a very strong run, probably too strong. I would have preferred a 2% year/year increase than the burst we had.. When we have those bursts up, it seems they must come down. It feels like now is the time.

 

well, there is a way to hedge the world/USA economy... Buy Puts. I am actually thinking of buying some of the puts on the SPXU.

 

IF the S&P crashes you are protected. some are saying 10-15% correction left. if that is the case. you could make 300-500% return.

 

 

It is going to get worse in my opinion.

The markets look forward several months so the future is not really starting to look so good.

 

China is a mess

European stock have been selling off

US stocks have been selling off since the new year

Oil is tanking (supply vs demand) demand is down as demand is declining

The fed have taken their foot off the accelerator and are going to raise rates at least 3 more times this year

We have 19 trillion dollars of debt and growing

The Democrats are going to loose the election and as it becomes more apparent they are going to derail things as much as possible to inflict as much pain as possible to the American people

Then their is the whole middle east which is a disaster

 

I have been in cash preservation for awhile now.

 

Just my 2 cents. Sincerely Vic

 

I'm rolling with Vic.

 

Don't like dems will lose the election though.

 

Dow futures down 300, oil below $28 dollars.

I decided to purchase some stocks today... hoping we are near the lower end. Kept plenty of powder dry but did get in on some stuff. INTC, PII, AAPL.. I want to buy more F but I think they are still going to have some chop so waiting on that. I did make out like a bandit on my HOG short!

Next level of support on the Dow is 15,373 expect a bit of a bounce there and then the sell off continues. Vic

Feels pretty crashy today...

Wow, what a swing up.

I hope this continues tomorrow. If so, I definitely bought in at the exact right time.

Got rid of my Canadian energy company stocks yesterday, took a loss. Couldn't stand the unpredictability of how oil is looking for the next bit here...

Got rid of my Canadian energy company stocks yesterday, took a loss. Couldn't stand the unpredictability of how oil is looking for the next bit here...

 

Honestly, I think the best and cheapest way to play the oil recovery is to just buy Canadian dollars. You can sit on it for years, there is no management fee and no contango. It is tied so heavily to commodity and oil prices at this point that if oil recovers, it too will recover. And even if oil never recovers, I do believe that Canada will be just fine and eventually their dollar will recover as well.

 

I'll be buying up some CAD very soon. I can see it getting back to $1.30 quite easily.

Honestly, I think the best and cheapest way to play the oil recovery is to just buy Canadian dollars. You can sit on it for years, there is no management fee and no contango. It is tied so heavily to commodity and oil prices at this point that if oil recovers, it too will recover. And even if oil never recovers, I do believe that Canada will be just fine and eventually their dollar will recover as well.

 

I'll be buying up some CAD very soon. I can see it getting back to $1.30 quite easily.

 

That is a great play and pretty safe.

I have almost everything in Canadian dollars so to speak.

 

Trust me when I say it isn't much fun right now.

 

 

 

On the bright side the value of the Countach in CAD$ looks mighty impressive lately.

Honestly, I think the best and cheapest way to play the oil recovery is to just buy Canadian dollars. You can sit on it for years, there is no management fee and no contango. It is tied so heavily to commodity and oil prices at this point that if oil recovers, it too will recover. And even if oil never recovers, I do believe that Canada will be just fine and eventually their dollar will recover as well.

 

I'll be buying up some CAD very soon. I can see it getting back to $1.30 quite easily.

 

You will see not the CDN dollar doing anything but go down for the next few months. BOC is going to cut rates again, then is the time to buy.

It seems there are quite a few diablos and countachs that have been for sale for quite a while. Not to mention several cars that have recently come available like the verde ithaca Murcielago SV Roy just got back. There are several SVs for sale right now too.

 

Is this an indication of people not having money to buy due to economic decline? Or because asking prices are too high? I think (correct me if I am wrong) some of the countachs were high 300ks months ago and now low 300ks.

It seems there are quite a few diablos and countachs that have been for sale for quite a while. Not to mention several cars that have recently come available like the verde ithaca Murcielago SV Roy just got back. There are several SVs for sale right now too.

 

Is this an indication of people not having money to buy due to economic decline? Or because asking prices are too high? I think (correct me if I am wrong) some of the countachs were high 300ks months ago and now low 300ks.

Well, IMO supply vs demand on everything.. Certain pieces may bring the money, but I think the Lambo prices got over inflated. The second my diablo sold for $175k with 50k miles and a repaint the diablo market changed... Everyone acted like a diablo with 10k miles now is worth $300k...

 

I think that is ridiculous.. Did everyone forget the extensive rebuild my car went through.. Is a diablo worth $300k.. In time, but are they selling for that right now.. 1 or 2 may have, but I think prices are going to adjust. (certain models should bring the $... but a 94vt... still a $100k car to me)

 

The countach deserves it's price point, but unless it is a 100% refresh, I think most of them arn't selling in the $300k's anymore. (except for certain models of course. lp400, periscopa, and down draft cars can all bring good $ anytime.)

 

Spring time is usually when these cars start to sell. If they start getting picked off the market at these price points, then we can be pretty sure the values won't go back down. If they don't get picked off, prices will either adjust or dealers will hold.

 

It is starting to roll over again. Dow down 300+ points.