Facebook to sink?

Sit tight for a couple of days RDad. it's going up 5 points by Friday

 

Im out... Guess schwab lets you place orders pre market, but they dont get transmitted until 8AM est. at 7:58 EST it was 38.23. At 8:00 it dumped to 38.04. Im out at 38.04... I didnt sell that stock... Turns out, I had to divorce the fcuking thing.

 

585,200 shares traded.... And the market isnt even opened yet... They will do more share PREMARKET this morning, then they did ALL DAY FRIDAY... Look the fcuk out below.

 

 

For those keeping score... After commission, I lost $1.12.... Im going to reposes the McDonalds I bought my son Friday night.

Broke through 38 and shot right down to 37 in a matter of seconds... Went under 37 for a bit.... Looks like it has some solid support at 37.16... Glad to be out. This thing cant even be shorted until TOMORROW.... Then I fear BAD THINGS for the ones still in... Too many people like Brian wilson who are skeptical about the revenues, and too many people like me who got spooked by the NASDAQ cluster fcuk the last 3 days....

 

 

Some people woke up on Saturday morning with two times the amount of stock they thought they had purchased Friday... Some at wildly different prices than they thought they had bid at.... SEC should be all over this shit.

FFS, get yourself a damn blog or Twitter stream.

FFS, get yourself a damn blog or Twitter stream.

 

I have Lpower.

35.75 at the open.... down 7%+ HUGE momentum to the negative....

Talk about getting lucky....

 

Scott trade called me this morning to discuss my order that I put in on Friday and they said based on the large amount of orders submitted from Nasdaq to Scotttrade, that some people's orders got deleted, mine being one of them. Had my order went through I would have been in at 40-42/share.

 

Now the question is....buy now at 35, wait until it plummets more, or just stay out? Hmmm...

 

 

Talk about getting lucky....

 

Scott trade called me this morning to discuss my order that I put in on Friday and they said based on the large amount of orders submitted from Nasdaq to Scotttrade, that some people's orders got deleted, mine being one of them. Had my order went through I would have been in at 40-42/share.

 

Now the question is....buy now at 35, wait until it plummets more, or just stay out? Hmmm...

 

 

Stay out for now...

 

It looks like the underwriters are making another stand at 35. It wont last.

Stay out for now...

 

It looks like the underwriters are making another stand at 35. It wont last.

 

 

35 broke and it shot down to 33...

People didn't believe me when I told them Facebook would tank

May 21 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley's brokerage affiliate, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, has a "large number" of market orders and marketable limit orders that were entered Friday for the trading debut of Facebook Inc stock that have still not been reconciled, according to an adviser at the firm.

 

The adviser, who is not allowed to talk to the media and who declined to be identified, received an email that went out right after the firm's 9:00 a.m EDT (1300 GMT) Monday morning meeting.

 

The firm, in which Citigroup also has a minority interest, is working to "reconcile" the issue manually, according to the memo.

 

This fcuking stinks of fraud... Orders placed three days ago were "left open"... Giving the UNDERWRITER the option of filling them or not.... In other words.... People and institutions who placed orders with MS, at a price certain, have basically been told "We'll let you know if you we'll fill that order.... After we see what the price does on Monday."

 

Anybody want to bet that if this thing went to $50, none of those 38-45 orders would be filled.... It would be "oh... So sorry.... The computers fucked you..."

 

Anybody else want to guess that now that the price is 33 and change all those 42 dollar orders will be miraculously filled three days later? "Congratulations! We had some problems, but we managed to get your order filled!"

 

They were hedging their underwriting using customers as ballast.

For those who invested, it's official.........it's a long term stock to make money

For those who invested, it's official.........it's a long term stock to make money

 

LOL, I was advised by two brokers to stay out in the near term, glad I did, need to change the title of this thread to "Facebook to Sink!"

Anybody else want to guess that now that the price is 33 and change all those 42 dollar orders will be miraculously filled three days later? "Congratulations! We had some problems, but we managed to get your order filled!"

 

I will keep you posted...

They have the potential to be profitable. I've been asking friends who actually USE Facebook what if any ways it could be made more profitable are. The consensus seems to be in the business pages. Like I think RD said, if companies have to start paying for fan pages and to have so many allocated posts per month, that would drastically improve revenue.

They have the potential to be profitable. I've been asking friends who actually USE Facebook what if any ways it could be made more profitable are. The consensus seems to be in the business pages. Like I think RD said, if companies have to start paying for fan pages and to have so many allocated posts per month, that would drastically improve revenue.

That would help. As long as they dont price the pages to high either businesses will pay for it. I have paid for ads for my business and it defiantly helps. They have paid for themselves a few times over.

Long term I have no doubt about the profitability of this company. As I said however, this was not a long term move for me... This was a "Get as much IPO as they will give me, and Sell the pop at the open" proposition trade for me. It doesnt fit into my current investment strategy beyond that, which says nothing about it as a company, I just needed OUT.

 

Had the NASDAQ market WORKED like it SHOULD HAVE, I would have completely succeeded in that endeavor.. I would have sold at 42.5 or more likely 43-44, as I couldn't even react fast enough to sell at the open before it did POP up to 45. I would have made a thousand dollars, and gone and bought a toy for myself. But I was unable to sell my shares until 5 am this morning....

 

 

And I truly still believe it would have popped up even more had Nasdaq not delayed the open, and I would have made EVEN MORE... But that wasnt to be.

 

 

It needs to settle here... If I were interested in the stock, I would see what it does tomorrow, and more importantly friday. Those are the two big days.... It should establish a natural range for itself, and I think long term investors can get in AFTER THAT, and will be happy a few years from now.

 

Anybody more cautious, Id look for their first reporting period to jump in, as I bet its going to be VERY volatile.

31.50

Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut Facebook’s Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

Facebook Bankers Secretly Cut Facebook’s Revenue Estimates In Middle Of IPO Roadshow

I was just about to post this.... Somebodies going to jail....

 

For the last three days I've been scratching my head... The Nasdaq "trading mishaps" seemed to REALLY benefit Morgan Stanley.... After all... Me and millions like me who got the IPO and were prepped to sell the pop were unable to do so. We were basically forced to hold onto it until the premarkets opened to the general public monday at 8am EST... Meanwhile the institutions had 8 hours, with no interference from the retail sellers to dump their shares... The amount of action from 5am eastern until 8am alone was INCREDIBLE... At prices HIGHER than the IPO... And seconds before the market opened to the rest of us, the price plummeted back to the IPO price.

 

Then it turns out that Morgan Stanley is SITTING on tons of orders from friday... Orders that they have chosen to try to fill instead of cancel.... Now that they know the stock went down.... Wow... How fortuitous for them.... Id like an option to trade my stocks based on the price three days ago.

 

 

All the while Im thinking "This looks intentional..... But they wouldn't dare.... They'd be GUARANTEED to get caught... ESPECIALLY on a deal with this high a profile." and then this comes out.... And it settles it for me. THEY FOR SURE KNEW THIS WOULD COME OUT.... IT IS FOR SURE A CRIMINAL VIOLATION. The other two "shenanigans" pale in comparison in both risk and liability.

 

 

They didn't care.

They didn't care.

 

Do you think they can pin it on any one person, or group of people? Will the CEO take the fall?

 

In the end they made billions, will they just pay a fine and eat some legal costs along the way?

Do you think they can pin it on any one person, or group of people? Will the CEO take the fall?

 

In the end they made billions, will they just pay a fine and eat some legal costs along the way?

 

Im not sure in the end they did make billions... They were set to make billions on the underwriting fee... But then they SPENT billions propping the stock up at the IPO price on Friday... And I believe they propped it again briefly at 35 yesterday morning and then gave up....

 

I think what they did, was prevent MS from LOSING billions more.

 

The SEC is on the case... There are, in the final analysis, a HANDFUL of people who had a roll in the IPO process.... They must have left a paper trail. Heads SHOULD roll....

 

I would be shocked if there arent class action lawsuits started by this time next week.

I doubt anything other than a slap on the wrist will come of it. Unless you can prove that FB gave them concrete information/numbers, then I don't think this will go very far. It will end up being considered legal, but unfair -- just like the vast majority of the stock market with respect to retail investors like you and me. There were all kinds of warning signs about the risk with this IPO. If FB made a last minute amendment that the analyst didn't like, that seems good enough a reason. Everyone else had the chance to read the amendment too.

 

One really didn't need an analyst cut to tell that this wasn't a good investment. The CEO openly says he's more interested in 'changing the world' than making money. Facebook is a blahblahblah, not a public company.

 

There were also no shortage of naysayers and analyst opinion that said it wasn't a good buy. I'd say that most coverage indeed said it was overvalued and called attention to it's QoQ revenue decrease, user migration to mobile, lack of mobile monetization, and slowing growth. GM came out 1 day before and said it wasn't satisfied with the advertising. The IPO was 60% insiders, including GS who unloaded 50% of it's stake. It's a downmarket and almost every other new, social networking IPO has flopped pretty hard too. Oh, and it was a $104B valuation on a company that had 10-20x less income than companies only twice it size.

 

It was a very rich valuation and a speculative buy. Most everyone I know just wanted to sell the pop and hype. Hardly a good sign.

delete

Do you think they can pin it on any one person, or group of people? Will the CEO take the fall?

 

In the end they made billions, will they just pay a fine and eat some legal costs along the way?

 

Huh? The underwriters split $176M in fees total. MS got more than GS and JPM, so maybe $80-100M.

 

In the end, MS will lose a shit load on this most likely. They were the ones propping up the price the other day. Depending on when they got in and out, they could have lost hundreds of millions.

I doubt anything other than a slap on the wrist will come of it. Unless you can prove that FB gave them concrete information/numbers, then I don't think this will go very far.

If they did receive information from FB, and they almost CERTAINLY DID, for them to take the unprecedented action of changing their own numbers DURING THE IPO, then its insider trading.

 

This isnt about "Brian Wilson thought it was a bad investment"... For every stock, at every price, there is always a buyer. Always a seller. Some who will think it will go down, some who think it will go up... Half will always be right. Thats not the point. The point is TRADING STOCK ON NON-PUBLIC MATERIAL INFORMATION, IS A FELONY. WHETHER THE STOCK LATER GOES UP, OR DOWN. WHETHER THE TRADER MAKES MONEY OR LOSES IT. Its the ACT, NOT THE RESULT. And this one is going to be pretty fcuking easy to prove... ALL THREE UNDERWRITERS changed their estimates? That didnt happen by coincidence. And it didnt happen because of the amended prospectus.... Every IPO Ive ever done has had two and three amended statements during the IPO process... Nobody changed the valuations mid stream.

One really didn't need an analyst cut to tell that this wasn't a good investment. The CEO openly says he's more interested in 'changing the world' than making money.

 

Oh... I dont know... I think hes done a remarkable job of making himself and making Facebook money, and hes showed some incredible business skills just on how he made out during this IPO while playing with the biggest boys on the block... Hell, he got them to RAISE THEIR VALUATION, WHILE THEY WERE CUTTING THEIR ESTIMATES... From the best I can tell, he's the only person who made any money on this deal... Pretty damned good business skills from where I sit.