So... Ebola...

See table showing years and outbreaks ...

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus#Epidemiology

 

 

This is the chart I'm looking at...

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak

We've gone from 86 initial cases to 1323 in 129 days. Now, I'm not super at math, but I calculate that its doubling every 31 days or so? Obviously, if it gets out of Africa and continues at that rate in multiple locations simultaneously, that will accelerate exponentially. You could easily have a billion people infected in 24 months.

 

 

 

Obviously, this outbreak is different than previous outbreaks of Zaire. The others have killed more thoroughly, but never spread this wide. Why and how did this one keep burning into the thousands where other outbreaks have killed themselves off after just a few dozen cases?

This is the chart I'm looking at...

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak

We've gone from 86 initial cases to 1323 in 129 days. Now, I'm not super at math, but I calculate that its doubling every 31 days or so? Obviously, if it gets out of Africa and continues at that rate in multiple locations simultaneously, that will accelerate exponentially. You could easily have a billion people infected in 24 months.

 

 

 

Obviously, this outbreak is different than previous outbreaks of Zaire. The others have killed more thoroughly, but never spread this wide. Why and how did this one keep burning into the thousands where other outbreaks have killed themselves off after just a few dozen cases?

 

 

The figure definitely looks like the beginning of an exponential curve ...

More...

 

 

Sweet dreams folks....

 

Boy aren't you just filled with happy news tonight.

Maybe I will skip painting the garage tomorrow and relax instead.

 

Boy aren't you just filled with happy news tonight.

Maybe I will skip painting the garage tomorrow and relax instead.

 

 

Well, again... This is another one of my partner in crime's areas of expertise... This is the one... Ebola Zaire... A level 4 hemorrhagic fever with incomprehensible fatality rates... The one that the people who discovered it equate to looking a cobra in the face. A world killer. There is nothing else, aside from a rogue celestial body, or all out thermonuclear war, that possesses the ability to extinguish human life the way Ebola Zaire might if it gets out...

 

And yet for some reason, I've noticed a concerted effort (it seems to have started in the left wing blog "the vox" which has close ties to the Obama administration) to downplay what this is... I on't understand why. And I dont understand why we would intentionally fly sick patients to the U.S. (unless as my buddy suggests, its to use them as guinea pigs with a possible vaccine- But we could have shipped that to them instead of the other way around).

Thanks to Romandad I know a lot more than I ever wanted to and I am even less happy about Ebola infected people being flown to the US.

 

It is extremely arrogant to think we know enough to say with certainty that there is no risk flying infected people out of Africa to other countries where Ebola has never been seen.

 

As others pointed out, what is so scary is while this version is less deadly than previously seen versions which were so deadly they killed themselves off before they could spread very far, this one seems more determined to continue to spread and put far more people at risk.

fcuk this Shit, I'm heading to the Fortisdome! Open the roof, I'm coming in hot!

fcuk this Shit, I'm heading to the Fortisdome! Open the roof, I'm coming in hot!

 

You need to pass a medical exam first !!

I would assume there is more to the issue of flying it into the U.S. then we are aware here. I mean the people who gave the go to do that have families they are concerned about as well, no one is going to just take an unnecessary risk I would think.

 

Exactly

I'd rather have it and not need it than then it and not have it.

 

I once quoted him before, but I will again, the character Bert in Tremors 2: "When you need it, and don't have it, you sing a different tune." A lot of people equate being prepared with being paranoid, but they are two different things.

 

BTW, we in New York and California can have plenty of guns and ammo, we are just limited in terms of some models of guns and magazine capacities.

I had read that the Soviets engineered a really nasty strain of Ebola back during the Cold War as part of their bioweapons program. Makes one wonder what kind of versions of things like Ebola might actually exist, but kept hidden deep away in specialized government facilities.

Well... Here are some of my thoughts re what's happening this time versus previous outbreaks...

 

Previous known outbreaks have always hit non-Africans VERY hard... The patient zeros in three of them were all Europeans.

 

Equatorial Africans have lived with Ebola a long time before 1976 when Western medicine discovered it... And yet there haven't been major die offs.. Meaning they probably have some level of natural immunity, where Euopeans and Americans have far less. Also, Tribal Africans have formulated plans on how to deal with outbreaks... They lock down their villages and don't let anybody in... The opposite of what we are doing in the US right now.

 

Early outbreaks have traced back to medical practices that were abandoned with the HIV outbreak, inoculating hundreds of people with the same needle, etc... This one has no such hub that I'm aware of yet... Which means it may be more infectious than previous strains.

 

Health care providers are typically very hard hit by this... And are this time as well, despite taking precautions... Again, a reason not to move the victims away from the hot zone... Move the medical personnel to the hot zone so they don't carry the virus home with them at spread it to their own families.... This has NEVER been done with Ebola before despite the high number of foreigners who always come down with the disease.... They stay in place and help is sent to them... Not the other way around...

 

Science understands very little about this disease in the wild... We don't know what the natural host of the virus is. They think bat guano may be a major vector.... But they don't know how... More concerning is, this is one of the few viruses that has a high cross species infection rate. Put it in humans, humans get sick. Put it in monkeys, monkeys get sick. Put it in guinea pigs, guinea pigs get sick. We don't know how far this goes, but with each additional species that the virus can live in, increases it's possible vectors if it gets out. We don't know how it effects blood feeding insects, Mosquitos, tics, fleas etc. can they spread it?

Well, if it makes you all feel better...

 

The person who is being flown to the USA for treatment, her son goes to our church. I sure hope he doesnt visit her...

 

Also, are there reports of getting the virus from the dead?

 

Have they proved what kind of immunity survivors have? Some viruses are with you forever. Herpes....repeated cases of mono....chicken pox to shingles....

 

If she does die, im worried about what happens to those who are around the body. If she lives, Im worried shell end up in our church.

I had read that the Soviets engineered a really nasty strain of Ebola back during the Cold War as part of their bioweapons program. Makes one wonder what kind of versions of things like Ebola might actually exist, but kept hidden deep away in specialized government facilities.

 

Both sides probably have weaponized versions of this bug and worse... But weaponization of a bio agent actually goes the opposite way most people think... You want the bug to kill FASTER than up it naturally does... You're going to spray it onto troops on the battle field... And troops live in close enough contact that if one gets sick, they all get sick... What you don't want is the bug to get loose and kill your own troops...

 

 

The scary part is, Al Quada has wanted to "terrorize" Ebola and May have actually had some dudes capable of doing it... They had a pretty active bio weapons cell.... And to make one of these a terrorist weapon, you do exactly what this bug is doing... Slow down the kill rate... Slow down the incubation period... And, make it more survivable outside the host and thus more infective.

Well, if it makes you all feel better...

 

The person who is being flown to the USA for treatment, her son goes to our church. I sure hope he doesnt visit her...

 

Also, are there reports of getting the virus from the dead?

 

Have they proved what kind of immunity survivors have? Some viruses are with you forever. Herpes....repeated cases of mono....chicken pox to shingles....

 

If she does die, im worried about what happens to those who are around the body. If she lives, Im worried shell end up in our church.

 

 

The dead are literally bags of highly infective viruses, and in Africa, where women prepare the dead for burial, those woman are typically some of the hardest hit second generation victims... There is an African custom of kissing the forehead of the deceased... Yeah... They don't do that any more...

 

I suspect survivors are immune... Unfortunately, it's not something most people would want to survive... Survivors typically lose all their hair, they're scarred, often blind, brain damaged, etc... It's like surviving radiation poisoning... The damage this fucker does to the organs is unbelievable...

There is a toy company called Giant Microbes that makes plush doll versions of various diseases. Here is their Ebola one; gotta love capitalism

 

Hmmm.... Just read all this drinking my coffee....

 

 

Time to go load up the AR just in case this fucker decides to get crazy lol

 

 

Well, again... This is another one of my partner in crime's areas of expertise... This is the one... Ebola Zaire... A level 4 hemorrhagic fever with incomprehensible fatality rates... The one that the people who discovered it equate to looking a cobra in the face. A world killer. There is nothing else, aside from a rogue celestial body, or all out thermonuclear war, that possesses the ability to extinguish human life the way Ebola Zaire might if it gets out...

 

And yet for some reason, I've noticed a concerted effort (it seems to have started in the left wing blog "the vox" which has close ties to the Obama administration) to downplay what this is... I on't understand why. And I dont understand why we would intentionally fly sick patients to the U.S. (unless as my buddy suggests, its to use them as guinea pigs with a possible vaccine- But we could have shipped that to them instead of the other way around).

 

All kidding aside, I can understand the concern and thank you for the postings and education.

Ever since this has started I have been thinking that it would be the ultimate terrorist weapon in to this country.

Combine the lethality of Ebola with the lax boarder issues here and we are all toast.

Bloody burnt toast that is, very scary indeed.

I wonder how possible it would be for a terrorist to go into Africa, infect themselves with the disease, then fly back here. If they are a legal terrorist like the Boston bombers, they wouldn't even need to cross illegally I am assuming. They would need to be able to get to the African country however, infect themselves, then make their way back here on time before showing symptoms.

All kidding aside, I can understand the concern and thank you for the postings and education.

Ever since this has started I have been thinking that it would be the ultimate terrorist weapon in to this country.

Combine the lethality of Ebola with the lax boarder issues here and we are all toast.

Bloody burnt toast that is, very scary indeed.

 

 

I heard if you have obamacare you do not have to worry. It covers Ebola

I wonder how possible it would be for a terrorist to go into Africa, infect themselves with the disease, then fly back here. If they are a legal terrorist like the Boston bombers, they wouldn't even need to cross illegally I am assuming. They would need to be able to get to the African country however, infect themselves, then make their way back here on time before showing symptoms.

 

 

That would suck...

I wonder how possible it would be for a terrorist to go into Africa, infect themselves with the disease, then fly back here. If they are a legal terrorist like the Boston bombers, they wouldn't even need to cross illegally I am assuming. They would need to be able to get to the African country however, infect themselves, then make their way back here on time before showing symptoms.

 

 

Not too easy. You have to find a symptomatic sick person, who I would assume are in quarantine, expose yourself without the healthcare personnel saying "what in the fcuking fcuk are tou doing you crazy fucker?" And quarentining your ass, and then get away.

Not too easy. You have to find a symptomatic sick person, who I would assume are in quarantine, expose yourself without the healthcare personnel saying "what in the fcuking fcuk are tou doing you crazy fucker?" And quarentining your ass, and then get away.

 

Yeah, I figured there has to be more to it than I am thinking, because if it was so easy, I am sure terrorists would already have done it.

If some Africans are immune to this virus, would that not help researchers in finding a cure for this disease and eventually eradicate it?

Tens of thousands of people die from the flu each year, and they don't spread it to everyone, so hopefully an Ebola outbreak wouldn't go super far either.

Well... Here are some of my thoughts re what's happening this time versus previous outbreaks...

 

Previous known outbreaks have always hit non-Africans VERY hard... The patient zeros in three of them were all Europeans.

 

Equatorial Africans have lived with Ebola a long time before 1976 when Western medicine discovered it... And yet there haven't been major die offs.. Meaning they probably have some level of natural immunity, where Euopeans and Americans have far less. Also, Tribal Africans have formulated plans on how to deal with outbreaks... They lock down their villages and don't let anybody in... The opposite of what we are doing in the US right now.

How can you be sure? It's not like Europeans had first contact with Africans in the 70s. This virus would have spread globally a long time ago through Europeans.

If some Africans are immune to this virus, would that not help researchers in finding a cure for this disease and eventually eradicate it?

 

There are people that are immune to HIV too, but unfortunately that's a blood type and is genetic. Only survival of the fittest would fix this.

 

Probably the same principal when a civilized person meets and uncontacted tribe and the "white devil" wipes them out.