Facebook to sink?

What galls me is how in twenty or thirty years, there are going to be more new tech companies that rise up and create whole new products and services that change the culture and create new billionaires in the process and I'm going to be kicking myself thinking, "DAMMIT, why didn't I think of that!"

 

Well, better get working to make sure it doesnt happen then

Well said sir, both times!

 

+1..let it sky rocket and then it will tank..

 

I think kids are using it more then most adults do these days... my point being is eventually these kids will get bored or over it..

 

I personally do not have a Facebook account nor do i have any desire to share my whole life with the world regardless of the "privacy" button..

 

 

I have to say I mostly agree with the following take on it:

 

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201409

What galls me is how in twenty or thirty years, there are going to be more new tech companies that rise up and create whole new products and services that change the culture and create new billionaires in the process and I'm going to be kicking myself thinking, "DAMMIT, why didn't I think of that!"

 

 

Wheels, there are so many more factors contributing to the creation of a billionaire the least of which is the idea, and most of those factors are totally out of your control.

so overall, when do you guys think this will be a good buy?

so overall, when do you guys think this will be a good buy?

 

My personal thought, they are nowhere near their earnings cap. While I agree they will start a decline if the site becomes inundated with advertising, there will be a nice high point in the laffers curve where this will be a huge gain from the opening price.

 

If it is offered in the $80 range, I'm wagering (ever share I can get my hands on) it will double inside the first couple weeks.

 

One thing you guys might be forgetting is this is such an infectious site/brand, I think you will see lots of investors who wouldn't normally be in the stock market. This alone IMO will drive up the price.

My personal thought, they are nowhere near their earnings cap. While I agree they will start a decline if the site becomes inundated with advertising, there will be a nice high point in the laffers curve where this will be a huge gain from the opening price.

 

If it is offered in the $80 range, I'm wagering (ever share I can get my hands on) it will double inside the first couple weeks.

 

One thing you guys might be forgetting is this is such an infectious site/brand, I think you will see lots of investors who wouldn't normally be in the stock market. This alone IMO will drive up the price.

 

People are also going to be buying on the prospect of it becoming more valuable, even if the numbers don't add up. It's like apple trading at $400+ before earnings are released, you just get in on that feeling knowing they will be an amazing company in the years to come. I think when google IPOed their revenues were only $137some million....trading well above their EPS...look at them now. I rememeber that stock hitting $350+ within the first week (or first day of trading, can't remember was too young ).

 

I am more than sure that FB is a long time bet. Just IMO.

My personal thought, they are nowhere near their earnings cap. While I agree they will start a decline if the site becomes inundated with advertising, there will be a nice high point in the laffers curve where this will be a huge gain from the opening price.

 

If it is offered in the $80 range, I'm wagering (ever share I can get my hands on) it will double inside the first couple weeks.

 

One thing you guys might be forgetting is this is such an infectious site/brand, I think you will see lots of investors who wouldn't normally be in the stock market. This alone IMO will drive up the price.

 

 

i think its worth a shot, thx guys!

My personal thought, they are nowhere near their earnings cap. While I agree they will start a decline if the site becomes inundated with advertising, there will be a nice high point in the laffers curve where this will be a huge gain from the opening price.

 

If it is offered in the $80 range, I'm wagering (ever share I can get my hands on) it will double inside the first couple weeks.

 

One thing you guys might be forgetting is this is such an infectious site/brand, I think you will see lots of investors who wouldn't normally be in the stock market. This alone IMO will drive up the price.

 

$80? Not even close. $80/share would value FB at $150B+. Not a chance.

People are also going to be buying on the prospect of it becoming more valuable, even if the numbers don't add up. It's like apple trading at $400+ before earnings are released, you just get in on that feeling knowing they will be an amazing company in the years to come. I think when google IPOed their revenues were only $137some million....trading well above their EPS...look at them now. I rememeber that stock hitting $350+ within the first week (or first day of trading, can't remember was too young ).

 

I am more than sure that FB is a long time bet. Just IMO.

 

Google at IPO wasn't valued at $80B, wasn't as mature of a company, and the Internet had a fraction of the users it had today. I believe that ad spend today is something like 8-10x that of what it was when Google went public. The Internet user base was 745 million then, and today is over 2B. Don't forget about inflation either.

 

Google's earnings of $100M and $1B in revenue in 2004, when put into context, is comparable and probably greater than that of FB given the vast differences between 2004 and 2012.

 

Facebook is a very mature company, believe it or not, and its upside is limited by its current valuation. FB will only be 2-3x smaller than Google, Microsoft, and IBM, yet those guys are earning 10-20x as much money. And lets be honest, FB will never earn that much money.

Google at IPO wasn't valued at $80B, wasn't as mature of a company, and the Internet had a fraction of the users it had today. I believe that ad spend today is something like 8-10x that of what it was when Google went public. The Internet user base was 745 million then, and today is over 2B. Don't forget about inflation either.

 

Google's earnings of $100M and $1B in revenue in 2004, when put into context, is comparable and probably greater than that of FB given the vast differences between 2004 and 2012.

 

Facebook is a very mature company, believe it or not, and its upside is limited by its current valuation. FB will only be 2-3x smaller than Google, Microsoft, and IBM, yet those guys are earning 10-20x as much money. And lets be honest, FB will never earn that much money.

 

Gotta agree.

Facebook does have a product.....at least that I buy. It's advertising. I also think they do a better job of matching buyers to ads. In addition, in my own experience it's much cheaper than Google.

 

If you look at how Google blew up from advertising revenue, I think you'll see the same trend with FB. I started using Google Adwords when they first started. I remember when clicks were .40 cents per click for my market. With all the competition for keywords a lot of smaller businesses are getting bidded out of CPC. It's good for Google since they get paid more per click. But bad for businesses. And it's ironic that they boasted how they were putting advertising back into the hands of small businesses.

 

As an example, I pay $7.50 per click for one of my campaigns on Google. Reaching that same demographic on Facebook cost about .68 cents. I won't get into the details but Facebook users are higher quality leads than Google. They buy faster and they buy more frequently. That's why I said they do a better job at matching buyers to what I'm selling.

 

What am I and other advertisers starting to do? We are shifting our marketing budget to Facebook from Google. How long will it take Facebook to go from .68 cents per click to $7.50? Who knows. But for sure bidding will only go up and FB will make more money from ads. The side effect is FB will start to chip away at Gs revenue. In the long-run I don't see how FB could do anything but succeed. I also think that FB advertising is still in it's infant stage. My peers haven't even made the switch yet, but it's inevitable.

 

 

 

 

Facebook does have a product.....at least that I buy. It's advertising. I also think they do a better job of matching buyers to ads. In addition, in my own experience it's much cheaper than Google.

 

If you look at how Google blew up from advertising revenue, I think you'll see the same trend with FB. I started using Google Adwords when they first started. I remember when clicks were .40 cents per click for my market. With all the competition for keywords a lot of smaller businesses are getting bidded out of CPC. It's good for Google since they get paid more per click. But bad for businesses. And it's ironic that they boasted how they were putting advertising back into the hands of small businesses.

 

As an example, I pay $7.50 per click for one of my campaigns on Google. Reaching that same demographic on Facebook cost about .68 cents. I won't get into the details but Facebook users are higher quality leads than Google. They buy faster and they buy more frequently. That's why I said they do a better job at matching buyers to what I'm selling.

 

What am I and other advertisers starting to do? We are shifting our marketing budget to Facebook from Google. How long will it take Facebook to go from .68 cents per click to $7.50? Who knows. But for sure bidding will only go up and FB will make more money from ads. The side effect is FB will start to chip away at Gs revenue. In the long-run I don't see how FB could do anything but succeed. I also think that FB advertising is still in it's infant stage. My peers haven't even made the switch yet, but it's inevitable.

 

No advertising on mobile yet, either. One of the HUGE advantages they have is a great ability to target ads to a certain demographic/interests. Who else can target specifically to a guy in Chicago that likes paintball?

 

Maybe bad example, but you get the point

Well im out for now I guess...

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTV...=TorontoNewHome

$200 million dollar pay day for some office graffiti

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/technolo...-riches.html?hp

$200 million dollar pay day for some office graffiti

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/technolo...-riches.html?hp

 

DAMN!

Facebook does have a product.....at least that I buy. It's advertising. I also think they do a better job of matching buyers to ads. In addition, in my own experience it's much cheaper than Google.

 

If you look at how Google blew up from advertising revenue, I think you'll see the same trend with FB. I started using Google Adwords when they first started. I remember when clicks were .40 cents per click for my market. With all the competition for keywords a lot of smaller businesses are getting bidded out of CPC. It's good for Google since they get paid more per click. But bad for businesses. And it's ironic that they boasted how they were putting advertising back into the hands of small businesses.

 

As an example, I pay $7.50 per click for one of my campaigns on Google. Reaching that same demographic on Facebook cost about .68 cents. I won't get into the details but Facebook users are higher quality leads than Google. They buy faster and they buy more frequently. That's why I said they do a better job at matching buyers to what I'm selling.

 

What am I and other advertisers starting to do? We are shifting our marketing budget to Facebook from Google. How long will it take Facebook to go from .68 cents per click to $7.50? Who knows. But for sure bidding will only go up and FB will make more money from ads. The side effect is FB will start to chip away at Gs revenue. In the long-run I don't see how FB could do anything but succeed. I also think that FB advertising is still in it's infant stage. My peers haven't even made the switch yet, but it's inevitable.

 

On the contrary, it's ads are much less targeted overall. Better targeted display ads? Possible]y. Better targeted compared to search ads? Not a chance. Google has search intent on it's side -- it's why it's CTR is significantly higher. There will never be anything more targeted than search intent.

 

Question: Are you paying $.68 display ads vs. $7.50 Adwords search ads? Big difference...

Facebook does have a product.....at least that I buy. It's advertising. I also think they do a better job of matching buyers to ads. In addition, in my own experience it's much cheaper than Google.

 

If you look at how Google blew up from advertising revenue, I think you'll see the same trend with FB. I started using Google Adwords when they first started. I remember when clicks were .40 cents per click for my market. With all the competition for keywords a lot of smaller businesses are getting bidded out of CPC. It's good for Google since they get paid more per click. But bad for businesses. And it's ironic that they boasted how they were putting advertising back into the hands of small businesses.

 

As an example, I pay $7.50 per click for one of my campaigns on Google. Reaching that same demographic on Facebook cost about .68 cents. I won't get into the details but Facebook users are higher quality leads than Google. They buy faster and they buy more frequently. That's why I said they do a better job at matching buyers to what I'm selling.

 

What am I and other advertisers starting to do? We are shifting our marketing budget to Facebook from Google. How long will it take Facebook to go from .68 cents per click to $7.50? Who knows. But for sure bidding will only go up and FB will make more money from ads. The side effect is FB will start to chip away at Gs revenue. In the long-run I don't see how FB could do anything but succeed. I also think that FB advertising is still in it's infant stage. My peers haven't even made the switch yet, but it's inevitable.

 

You hit the nail on the head.

 

Here is what I would expect to happen:

 

-Revenue should increase 2x over the next 12 months just from market forces in the ad market.

-Facebook launches an ad network, within 24-36 months it will have a monopoly market share on display adverting

-Mobile ads, both on the Facebook app and other mobile apps bring in $$$? new revenue (in the US, measured by minutes used per day mobile apps now exceed the web.)

-Facebook isn't satisfied with the amount of user data they have, they want more. That means increasingly valuable slices of traffic advertisers can buy, beyond just the market forces inflating advertiser costs. I can not predict how much this will increase their revenue, but I would expect it to be significant.

-Rather than being the next Facebook, new companies are plugging themselves in to Facebook in order to get more users faster. This is minimizing the risk of a future competitor.

 

In addition to that, Facebook has been sucking up a good portion of the smart engineering talent. That means the products launched work, and they are designed correctly. I can't even think of an appropriate analogy for putting Facebook, as both a service and a company, in the same category as Myspace. Its not pretty, but something along the lines of dog shit to a Victoria's Secret model.

 

I don't know what investors will do, but right now they seem comfortable with high P/E ratios for tech companies they think are still growing rapidly and will be around a while. I don't know if I'd buy the stock. I didn't have the type of money to be buying shares on the private market, but that would have been the time to get in.

DAMN!

 

 

holy smokes!

^

^

^

sorry for this one. -.-

 

 

$200 million dollar pay day for some office graffiti

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/technolo...-riches.html?hp

 

holy smokes!

 

 

 

Did anyone else get an invitation for the IPO?

Did anyone else get an invitation for the IPO?

None of the internet based brokerages are participating. Just the big investment banks.

None of the internet based brokerages are participating. Just the big investment banks.

 

 

I have e trade and received a conditional offer to buy shares priced between $28-$35. Don't like the terms personally. But I see potential in the company. Might dip into it long term, just not sure if the timing is right

I have e trade and received a conditional offer to buy shares priced between $28-$35. Don't like the terms personally. But I see potential in the company. Might dip into it long term, just not sure if the timing is right

 

Thanks!!! I read this last week...

 

Fidelity would not comment on whether it will offer Facebook shares. Other online brokerages, TD Ameritrade and Charles Schwab, said they will not be offering Facebook IPO shares to customers.

 

Just checked out my schwab IPO page and I have a cotp too...

 

Ill jump in... They usually give me a few hundred shares of IPO when I ask nicely.

 

Requested 400 shares.

 

update requested 600 shares... Its a trade for me... I do expect a pop on the first day....

I don't think I'll have access to any shares, but I'm still skeptical of it anyhow. If it floats with $100B, I really question the upside. Just seems too expensive, especially with the revenue numbers they posted recently for Q1 and an apparent decrease in margins. Q4 tends to be better than Q1 for advertising dollars, but it's still not a good thing for a company that is expected to grow into its valuation. Google is much more mature and still showed sequential and yoy revenue growth and net income.

 

If you could get in at the IPO price and sell relatively soon, it might be a good idea. Not sure if your brokerage will allow it though and I wouldn't bet the farm unless I could get out on the pop.