Jump to content

So... Ebola...


Roman
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 989
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Interesting opinion piece if anyone is inclined to read.

What We're Afraid to Say About Ebola - New York Times

It discusses the way this particular strain of Ebola is spreading through the African population versus the other Ebola strain obreaks of years past. Also touches on the future, could it mutate to become airborne? (Is it already?)

You can now get Ebola only through direct contact with bodily fluids. But viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.

Also there is this take away regarding the deaths of healthcare workers from Ebola:

Liberia has only 250 doctors left, for a population of four million.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting opinion piece if anyone is inclined to read.

What We're Afraid to Say About Ebola - New York Times

It discusses the way this particular strain of Ebola is spreading through the African population versus the other Ebola strain obreaks of years past. Also touches on the future, could it mutate to become airborne? (Is it already?)

 

Also there is this take away regarding the deaths of healthcare workers from Ebola:

 

 

Thats what Ive been worried about all along... When Liberia becomes overwhelmed, it will get out... (its probably out already) we have 4000 cases... it doubles every 3 weeks or so... But make it easy... Lets say it slows down and only doubles every month...

 

1 4000

2 8000

3 16000

4 32000

5 64000

 

Stop right there... Because at that point its a complete fcuking nightmare... 1000 new cases, DAILY... It overwhelms public health worldwide.

 

6 128000

7 250000

8 500000

9 1000000

 

16000, new cases, DAILY.

 

10 2 mil

11 4 mil

12 8 mil

 

Over 100,000 new cases- DAILY.

 

14 16 mil

16 32 mil

18 64 mil

19 120 mil

20 250 mil

21 500 mil

22 1 billion

23 2 billion

24 4 billion

25 8 billion

 

 

Oh... Wait... There are only 7 billion of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

September 6

 

4293 Cases... 2296 Deaths...

 

326 New Cases... 191 more deaths... 1 day...

 

 

September 10

 

4846 Cases... 2375 deaths...

 

553 New cases. 79 more deaths... 4 days...

 

 

Averaging 113 new cases a day for the first ten days of September... This has to stop now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The question that has been on my mind is whether or not survivors are "immune" to the disease after recovery? Thanks to Google it looks like this study may have already answered that question. At least that guarantees that the numbers game, even if played out on a global scale, will not wipe out all of humanity. It also indicates that survivors would make good caretakers and aid workers for the infected, depending on how badly their infection was and what they are capable of. New drug options in the news every day, hopefully something viable for a large population will become available. Heard of the first cases being diagnosed in Senegal last week. Not good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The question that has been on my mind is whether or not survivors are "immune" to the disease after recovery? Thanks to Google it looks like this study may have already answered that question. At least that guarantees that the numbers game, even if played out on a global scale, will not wipe out all of humanity. It also indicates that survivors would make good caretakers and aid workers for the infected, depending on how badly their infection was and what they are capable of. New drug options in the news every day, hopefully something viable for a large population will become available. Heard of the first cases being diagnosed in Senegal last week. Not good.

 

They would be immune... But not to other strains of florovirus. So if it mutates (they cannot let that happen) all bets are off...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

September 10

 

4846 Cases... 2375 deaths...

 

553 New cases. 79 more deaths... 4 days...

 

 

Averaging 113 new cases a day for the first ten days of September... This has to stop now.

 

 

Sep 13

 

 

5072 Cases... 2459 deaths.

 

 

226 new cases... 84 more deaths... 3 days.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You must have a lot of free time on your hands. I assume you have a shelter setup in your basement also ;)

 

 

If you don't want to read the thread, don't read the thread.... If you don't like the forum, I can fix that for you too... But save the asshole comments. Thanks.

 

 

And yes... I live in Tornado alley. I absolutely have a shelter in my basement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thats what Ive been worried about all along... When Liberia becomes overwhelmed, it will get out... (its probably out already) we have 4000 cases... it doubles every 3 weeks or so... But make it easy... Lets say it slows down and only doubles every month...

 

1 4000

2 8000

3 16000

4 32000

5 64000

 

Stop right there... Because at that point its a complete fcuking nightmare... 1000 new cases, DAILY... It overwhelms public health worldwide.

 

6 128000

7 250000

8 500000

9 1000000

 

16000, new cases, DAILY.

 

10 2 mil

11 4 mil

12 8 mil

 

Over 100,000 new cases- DAILY.

 

14 16 mil

16 32 mil

18 64 mil

19 120 mil

20 250 mil

21 500 mil

22 1 billion

23 2 billion

24 4 billion

25 8 billion

 

 

Oh... Wait... There are only 7 billion of us.

 

 

 

European CDC- Current reports are highly underestimated. R-naught is as high as 2 (US CDC has it at .9). Could have 270,000 cases by the end of the year (three months). If true, the above numbers will happen in about half the time....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RD, how do you feel about us sending troops and aid? Personally, I am down for the money, but I don't know if I am in for a penny, in for a pound, with sending the troops over and risking exposure to them and the likelihood of them brining it home. Am I being over cautious?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RD, how do you feel about us sending troops and aid? Personally, I am down for the money, but I don't know if I am in for a penny, in for a pound, with sending the troops over and risking exposure to them and the likelihood of them brining it home. Am I being over cautious?

 

fcuk. THAT. SHIT. is how I feel and most of my co-workers. If you said you were going to send me to:

 

A. West Africa in an administrative role with 0% chance of catching Ebola for 6 months.

 

or

 

B. Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria in a front line combat role for 12 months.

 

You couldn't get me on a plane to Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria fast enough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fcuk. THAT. SHIT. is how I feel and most of my co-workers. If you said you were going to send me to:

 

A. West Africa in an administrative role with 0% chance of catching Ebola for 6 months.

 

or

 

B. Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria in a front line combat role for 12 months.

 

You couldn't get me on a plane to Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria fast enough.

 

That is exactly what I said last night. I would take the Iraq/Afghanistan appointment in a heartbeat. Talk about fighting an enemy you cannot see, that would be more frightening than some guy with a RPG for me.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fcuk. THAT. SHIT. is how I feel and most of my co-workers. If you said you were going to send me to:

 

A. West Africa in an administrative role with 0% chance of catching Ebola for 6 months.

 

or

 

B. Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria in a front line combat role for 12 months.

 

You couldn't get me on a plane to Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria fast enough.

This is the first thing that game to my mind when I heard the story on the radio. Also talked with my military buddies, they all said Afghanistan/Iraq sounds like a better assignment.

 

I suppose you probably cant refuse an assignment?

 

I also have a friend who is a pilot, he said it would take a lot of money before he would think about being the pilot to fly the Ebola victim to the US.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The government claims our troops won't have contact with any ebola victims, but I'm not very confident in their ability to segregate victims from healthy persons with 100% accuracy over there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The government claims our troops won't have contact with any ebola victims, but I'm not very confident in their ability to segregate victims from healthy persons with 100% accuracy over there.

 

That and the fact that our government has become notorious with telling us things they wouldn't do then going and doing exactly that

 

I'm in the fcuk that camp. You tell me I'm going over there and I'm deserting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The government claims our troops won't have contact with any ebola victims, but I'm not very confident in their ability to segregate victims from healthy persons with 100% accuracy over there.

 

On the same page as you. Based on what we've seen so far from the handling of patients, the lack of hospital beds, increasing exposure, and an incubation period of ~2 to 21 days for Ebola - how is it that we won't have military personnel exposed? You can't be certain that you aren't dealing with people who haven't already been turned away from Ebola treatment centers or have the virus and aren't showing symptoms.

 

Don't forget there are still people there who probably still don't trust the government and are not getting care. In August there were patients forcibly taken from Ebola centers by those types of people. Maybe they won't trust US troops too?

 

So the government is trying to guarentee that there will be 0% exposure to our 3,000 troops? I'll be the first to admit, I'm not good at math at all, but that doesn't seem likely. I feel for the troops that will be sent there as I do in any conflict and I hope they stay safe.

Talk about venturing bravely into the unknown.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...