So... Ebola...

From an Ebola discussion on reddit:

 

"Most of this was posted in a deep nested reply but I'm seeing a lot of the same arguments popping up all over the thread so I figure it merits its own post:

Hi, I'm an Epidemiologist with a particular interest in infectious disease (and lots of past research experience on another hemorrhagic fever), and I'm going to try to address some of the misinformation rampant in this thread.

The reproductive number of Ebola is not 4, it's been calculated around 1.8, which is relatively low especially when you consider the Ro is a factor of the environment from the outbreaks in this study. The reproductive number in a first world environment would be much lower.

For those not aware, the basic reproductive number is a theoretical figure for a disease outbreak that refers to the average number of new infections one infected person will produce. The higher it goes the worse it is, anything below 1 means the disease will not spread. The closer to 1, the easier it is to control a disease.

An infected person is not infectious during the incubation period per the WHO:

The incubation period, or the time interval from infection to onset of symptoms, is from 2 to 21 days. The patients become contagious once they begin to show symptoms. They are not contagious during the incubation period.

Aerosolized transmission has only been observed in special laboratory conditions so while it is technically possible if modified and specially delivered, Ebola will not transmit through sneezes and coughs.

The long post-infection transmission period is a real concern, but were people in the US or other first-world countries to be infected, proper quarantine and isolation procedures would be taken even after the symptoms disappear. Doctors don't suddenly forget that a person is potentially infectious after symptoms fade and send a person on their merry way.

Ebola is absolutely a serious threat for Western Africa and this warning indicates that it poses a threat to the rest of Africa and possibly places in the Middle East. However, the worries about it becoming a threat in the US because of the patients brought to the CDC or any kind of global pandemic are simply fear-mongering at best.

The primary problems facing the spread in Africa right now are poor sanitary conditions and mistrust of foreign doctors coupled with a belief in homeopathic remedies causing the infected to not seek help.

"International Health Emergency" doesn't mean "prepare for a global pandemic". There is certainly a massive threat to the neighboring African countries and possibly parts of the Middle East and Southeast Asia if it makes its way far enough east.

Barring a very unlikely set of mutations though, Ebola's potential for a global pandemic or even any sort of meaningful spread in first world countries is very low.

While I'm glad people are finally starting to pay attention to the infectious disease problems that still plague many third world nations, they're looking at it in the wrong way. "What if it happens to us?" as opposed to "What can we do to help those already affected?", which is pretty sad.

E:

If you really want to help and aren't a doctor yourself, consider donations to groups that do outreach work in treating infectious disease, such as The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Doctors Without Borders, International Red Cross/Red Crescent, the WHO itself and many others.

Ebola is grabbing headlines but there are many infectious diseases that kill more on a day to day basis that could be preventable by modern sanitation and remain rampant in third world nations because the richer countries don't want to dedicate resources to something that's not a problem for them.

Even humanitarian groups that are not strictly health related but instead provide clean water and similar aid to third world countries can have significant impact on infectious disease spread (as many of the infectious diseases can be simply prevented by modern sanitation and access to clean water). There are many groups in this area too, such as The Water Project, Direct Relief International, and many others."

August 6 update:

 

1779 infected

 

961 dead

 

 

68 new cases. 29 more fatalities... In two days. Good news- Guniea seems to be done... Liberia and Sierra Leone are out of control. Nigeria can hopefully be contained.

 

 

August 9

 

1848 Infected

 

1013 dead

 

69 new cases... 52 More fatalities... In three days.

 

10 new cases in Guinea so its still going.

 

 

 

 

Patient zero is believed to be a two year old boy... Which brings up a whole new level of weirdness. What did a two year old come in contact with that had Ebola?

August 9

 

1848 Infected

 

1013 dead

 

69 new cases... 52 More fatalities... In three days.

 

10 new cases in Guinea so its still going.

 

 

 

 

Patient zero is believed to be a two year old boy... Which brings up a whole new level of weirdness. What did a two year old come in contact with that had Ebola?

 

 

Bat guano?

Bat guano?

 

 

You wouldn't think a two year old would come in direct contact with bats or bat guano... Even in Africa... We know it has some relation to bats and pigs, and some other as yet unknown creature that is the natural host...

 

 

What's the line from Contagion? "Somewhere in the world, the wrong pig met up with the wrong bat."

Well, there goes that option. A 75 year old Spanish priest was given the last available ZMAPP treatment. Apparently the entire developed supply was enough to treat three people and it will take months before more is ready. Great...

 

Well, there goes that option. A 75 year old Spanish priest was given the last available ZMAPP treatment. Apparently the entire developed supply was enough to treat three people and it will take months before more is ready. Great...

 

And he just died....

Patient zero is believed to be a two year old boy... Which brings up a whole new level of weirdness. What did a two year old come in contact with that had Ebola?

 

Pork loin?

 

You wouldn't think a two year old would come in direct contact with bats or bat guano... Even in Africa... We know it has some relation to bats and pigs, and some other as yet unknown creature that is the natural host...

 

 

What's the line from Contagion? "Somewhere in the world, the wrong pig met up with the wrong bat."

 

I was going to say you must not have kids but I remember you talking about picking your boy up at school in the Countach. My 2yo would put anything in his mouth and not think twice. A 2yo living in the African bush? I bet he would eat a dead bat.

 

Just finished "Hot Zone"...wow....some scary shit and to think the arrogant pricks in charge of our safety who dont know shit but want to portray that they know all and have it under control. They should be air dropped into the moddle of it.

Just finished "Hot Zone"...wow....some scary shit and to think the arrogant pricks in charge of our safety who dont know shit but want to portray that they know all and have it under control. They should be air dropped into the moddle of it.

Another Dr down:

 

http://news.msn.com/world/sleone-ebola-doc...erimental-drugs

Just finished "Hot Zone"...wow....some scary shit and to think the arrogant pricks in charge of our safety who dont know shit but want to portray that they know all and have it under control. They should be air dropped into the moddle of it.

 

Well to be fair, what else could they say?

 

"Well, we'd like to tell you it's all under control, but the reality is, we really don't know squat and there is a chance it could come into the United States and cause an outbreak and people will die a horrible death and all that."

 

I think the riots occurring in MO right now would probably look puny

A few years ago I worked on a bio terrorism software solution for states to implement based on morbidity reporting rules, in conjunction with the CDC..the models used were pretty much mitigation and isolation, with the assumptions that there will be losses in the process, and those are given...if you think you are going to hear everything regarding public health, outbreaks, trends, infections,etc. think again

 

Well to be fair, what else could they say?

 

"Well, we'd like to tell you it's all under control, but the reality is, we really don't know squat and there is a chance it could come into the United States and cause an outbreak and people will die a horrible death and all that."

 

I think the riots occurring in MO right now would probably look puny

 

twice post

August 9

 

1848 Infected

 

1013 dead

 

69 new cases... 52 More fatalities... In three days.

 

10 new cases in Guinea so its still going.

 

 

 

 

Patient zero is believed to be a two year old boy... Which brings up a whole new level of weirdness. What did a two year old come in contact with that had Ebola?

 

August 11

 

1975 infected

 

1069 dead

 

127 new cases, 56 more deaths- 2 days. Still mostly contained to Sierra Leone and Liberia

 

 

 

264 new cases per week.

Ebola epidemic vastly underestimated: WHO

 

You didn't need to be an EBOLA expert to figure this out weeks ago.

 

This is why it concerns me when we start flying infected people to other countries, regardless of the precautions taken. The people thinking they fully understand the disease because of how smart they are, aren't smart enough to realize they don't know everything about what they are dealing with.

It's just arrogance......we have bullshit doctors in my city on the news spreading lies that we have nothing to worry about and it's not that contagious...then these idiot sheep beleive it.... so scientists dealing with this in Maryland are scared to shit about this virus and build a crazy level 4 hot agent lab just to work with it....but hey...it's not that bad don't worry!!! Shut the fcuk up and admit you dont know shit...and don't risk others lives

Ebola epidemic vastly underestimated: WHO

 

You didn't need to be an EBOLA expert to figure this out weeks ago.

 

This is why it concerns me when we start flying infected people to other countries, regardless of the precautions taken. The people thinking they fully understand the disease because of how smart they are, aren't smart enough to realize they don't know everything about what they are dealing with.

 

Yeah, this is scary... Ebola burns itself out when you isolate all the sick people and isolate all the people they've been in contact with... Easy when you're talking about an isolated village in the middle of the jungle... It's a lot harder when it's into a city... With normal people with jobs, and families. The people who are sick today (hundreds of them at least) were infected weeks ago... And they likely infected others within those first few days they were sick... And those people will be sick a few weeks from now... Etc etc etc...

Ebola epidemic vastly underestimated: WHO

 

You didn't need to be an EBOLA expert to figure this out weeks ago.

 

This is why it concerns me when we start flying infected people to other countries, regardless of the precautions taken. The people thinking they fully understand the disease because of how smart they are, aren't smart enough to realize they don't know everything about what they are dealing with.

 

One of the commentators hits to the point with his/hers post.

"I want to add something to this idea that air travel is a low risk since the virus is not airborne. I've been on 6 international flights...If you're on a flight that's 12 to 16 hours in duration, those bathrooms go downhill fast. There is urine on the floor, toilet may not be flushed for the next person, you may have to wipe down the seat before you use it, and that's n guarantee that you have cleansed that toilet of any virus. If an infected person has peed, pooped, or thrown up in the bathroom, then touched something, touched the door handle or the sink faucet handles, etc... also, if someone next to you is infected & is coughing into their hands, blowing their nose, sweating from fever, and they touch something or even touch you !...that's bodily fluid. No, I have flown international flights many times & I believe it to be a HIGH risk as far as Ebola is concerned."

 

I'm really scared how medical people are blind to the risks.

 

August 11

 

1975 infected

 

1069 dead

 

127 new cases, 56 more deaths- 2 days. Still mostly contained to Sierra Leone and Liberia

 

 

 

264 new cases per week.

 

August 13

 

2127 infected

 

1145 Deaths

 

 

152 new cases, 76 more deaths. 2 days. Growing.

 

 

Nigeria seems to be controlled.

The genie is out of the bottle...

 

 

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jinamoore/two-days...liberia#2ns8sn6

The genie is out of the bottle...

 

 

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jinamoore/two-days...liberia#2ns8sn6

 

 

That's not good.

The genie is out of the bottle...

 

 

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jinamoore/two-days...liberia#2ns8sn6

Holy shit! Those looters are in for a very painful and deadly realization.

That's not good.

 

This is going to be very bad. Let's hope the quarantine works.

 

 

Unfortunately, they've basically just doomed their whole community to horrifying deaths....

This is going to be very bad. Let's hope the quarantine works.

 

 

Unfortunately, they've basically just doomed their whole community to horrifying deaths....

 

sadly..as Darwin would say....